Recent Middle East energy price spikes have elevated eurozone inflation risks and prompted near-unanimous trader positioning for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25 percent at the June 11 meeting from the current 2.00 percent level. April 2026 data showed rising shorter-horizon inflation expectations while longer-term measures remained anchored, and resilient labor markets have amplified concerns over second-round effects, shifting consensus toward preemptive tightening in line with economist surveys assigning roughly 90 percent probability to the move. Market-implied odds reflect this skin-in-the-game aggregation of forward-looking information. Softer-than-expected inflation prints or rapid energy price reversals could still reduce the need for immediate action and alter the outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Aumento de 25 pontos base 98.6%
No change 1.1%
Aumento de 50+ bps <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$715,471 Vol.
$715,471 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
1%
Aumento de 25 pontos base
99%
Aumento de 50+ bps
<1%
Aumento de 25 pontos base 98.6%
No change 1.1%
Aumento de 50+ bps <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$715,471 Vol.
$715,471 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$104,331 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$117,852 Vol.
<1%
No change
$161,780 Vol.
1%
Aumento de 25 pontos base
$169,805 Vol.
99%
Aumento de 50+ bps
$161,703 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent Middle East energy price spikes have elevated eurozone inflation risks and prompted near-unanimous trader positioning for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25 percent at the June 11 meeting from the current 2.00 percent level. April 2026 data showed rising shorter-horizon inflation expectations while longer-term measures remained anchored, and resilient labor markets have amplified concerns over second-round effects, shifting consensus toward preemptive tightening in line with economist surveys assigning roughly 90 percent probability to the move. Market-implied odds reflect this skin-in-the-game aggregation of forward-looking information. Softer-than-expected inflation prints or rapid energy price reversals could still reduce the need for immediate action and alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$715,471Data de Término
11 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent Middle East energy price spikes have elevated eurozone inflation risks and prompted near-unanimous trader positioning for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25 percent at the June 11 meeting from the current 2.00 percent level. April 2026 data showed rising shorter-horizon inflation expectations while longer-term measures remained anchored, and resilient labor markets have amplified concerns over second-round effects, shifting consensus toward preemptive tightening in line with economist surveys assigning roughly 90 percent probability to the move. Market-implied odds reflect this skin-in-the-game aggregation of forward-looking information. Softer-than-expected inflation prints or rapid energy price reversals could still reduce the need for immediate action and alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volume
$715,471Data de Término
11 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East energy price spikes have elevated eurozone inflation risks and prompted near-unanimous trader positioning for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25 percent at the June 11 meeting from the current 2.00 percent level. April 2026 data showed rising shorter-horizon inflation expectations while longer-term measures remained anchored, and resilient labor markets have amplified concerns over second-round effects, shifting consensus toward preemptive tightening in line with economist surveys assigning roughly 90 percent probability to the move. Market-implied odds reflect this skin-in-the-game aggregation of forward-looking information. Softer-than-expected inflation prints or rapid energy price reversals could still reduce the need for immediate action and alter the outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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