Skip to main content
icon for Eleição para o Senado Federal: 1º Lugar
Eleições·Brasil

Eleição para o Senado Federal: 1º Lugar

icon for Eleição para o Senado Federal: 1º Lugar
Eleições·Brasil

Eleição para o Senado Federal: 1º Lugar

Michelle Bolsonaro 44%

Sebastião Coelho 44%

Tiago 44%

Marley 43%

Polymarket
NOVO

Michelle Bolsonaro 44%

Sebastião Coelho 44%

Tiago 44%

Marley 43%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Sebastião Coelho

Sebastião Coelho

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Tiago

Tiago

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Marley

Marley

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Zanata

Zanata

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Guto Felício dos Santos

Guto Felício dos Santos

$0 Vol.

41%

icon for Avenir Rosa

Avenir Rosa

$0 Vol.

41%

icon for Bia Kicis

Bia Kicis

$0 Vol.

41%

icon for Professor Guilherme Amorim

Professor Guilherme Amorim

$0 Vol.

40%

icon for David Horn

David Horn

$0 Vol.

40%

icon for Erika Kokay

Erika Kokay

$0 Vol.

40%

icon for Ronaldo Fonseca

Ronaldo Fonseca

$0 Vol.

40%

icon for Leila do Vôlei

Leila do Vôlei

$0 Vol.

39%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro’s recent PL nomination for one of the Federal District’s two Senate seats has kept her in a tight contest for first place alongside Leila Barros and Erika Kokay, as shown in August polls placing the top contenders within a few points. Family reconciliation with Flávio Bolsonaro and her pairing with Bia Kicis on the right-wing ticket boosted visibility, yet local name recognition for the former volleyball star and established PT support for Kokay have prevented any decisive lead. With the October election weeks away, undecided voters, turnout patterns in Brasília, and last-minute campaign events remain the main variables that could separate the leaders in the plurality block vote.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro’s recent PL nomination for one of the Federal District’s two Senate seats has kept her in a tight contest for first place alongside Leila Barros and Erika Kokay, as shown in August polls placing the top contenders within a few points. Family reconciliation with Flávio Bolsonaro and her pairing with Bia Kicis on the right-wing ticket boosted visibility, yet local name recognition for the former volleyball star and established PT support for Kokay have prevented any decisive lead. With the October election weeks away, undecided voters, turnout patterns in Brasília, and last-minute campaign events remain the main variables that could separate the leaders in the plurality block vote.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Relacionado

icon for O Professor Guilherme Amorim vai obter o segundo maior número de votos na eleição para o Senado do Distrito Federal em 2026?

O Professor Guilherme Amorim vai obter o segundo maior número de votos na eleição para o Senado do Distrito Federal em 2026?

43%
Sim
icon for Will Marina Silva win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

Will Marina Silva win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

49%
icon for Evandro de Oliveira ganhará a maioria dos votos na eleição para o Senado do Amazonas em 2026?

Evandro de Oliveira ganhará a maioria dos votos na eleição para o Senado do Amazonas em 2026?

45%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição para o Senado Federal: 1º Lugar" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Michelle Bolsonaro" at 45%, followed by "Sebastião Coelho" at 45%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eleição para o Senado Federal: 1º Lugar" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eleição para o Senado Federal: 1º Lugar," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição para o Senado Federal: 1º Lugar" is "Michelle Bolsonaro" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sebastião Coelho" at 45%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição para o Senado Federal: 1º Lugar" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.