**Elevated capital expenditures of $180–190 billion in 2026 are weighing on near-term sentiment for Alphabet shares, currently trading near $368, as investors weigh margin pressure from depreciation, energy costs, and the Wiz acquisition against robust Google Cloud momentum.** Q1 results showed 21.8% revenue growth and 63% Cloud expansion, yet the stock has fallen roughly 6% over the past month amid capacity constraints and higher operating expenses. With next earnings not due until late July, the tightly clustered 49.5% probabilities across multiple price buckets around current levels reflect balanced trader views on whether AI-driven demand can offset these headwinds or if further profit compression will dominate. Macro risk appetite and any incremental regulatory updates could also influence short-term moves through the June 22–26 window.