Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.7% implied probability to a high temperature of 58°F or higher at Chicago O'Hare International Airport (KORD) on April 3, 2026, driven by National Weather Service forecasts indicating upper 50s to low 60s under southwesterly winds following yesterday's cold front departure, which limited April 1's high to just 39°F—14°F below the 54°F climatological normal. Ensemble model guidance from GFS and NAM supports this warming trend amid a building upper-level ridge, with current observations already reaching 62°F amid light rain and mostly cloudy skies. Scenarios challenging this include persistent showers or thickening cloud cover capping daytime heating, though high confidence persists given synoptic setup and historical spring rebound patterns; real-time observations will refine resolution via official Wunderground KORD data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on April 3?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?
58°F or higher 96.6%
56-57°F 2.5%
54-55°F 1.0%
52-53°F <1%
$88,816 Vol.
$88,816 Vol.
39°F or below
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
3%
58°F or higher
97%
58°F or higher 96.6%
56-57°F 2.5%
54-55°F 1.0%
52-53°F <1%
$88,816 Vol.
$88,816 Vol.
39°F or below
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
3%
58°F or higher
97%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.7% implied probability to a high temperature of 58°F or higher at Chicago O'Hare International Airport (KORD) on April 3, 2026, driven by National Weather Service forecasts indicating upper 50s to low 60s under southwesterly winds following yesterday's cold front departure, which limited April 1's high to just 39°F—14°F below the 54°F climatological normal. Ensemble model guidance from GFS and NAM supports this warming trend amid a building upper-level ridge, with current observations already reaching 62°F amid light rain and mostly cloudy skies. Scenarios challenging this include persistent showers or thickening cloud cover capping daytime heating, though high confidence persists given synoptic setup and historical spring rebound patterns; real-time observations will refine resolution via official Wunderground KORD data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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