Recent model consensus from global ensembles points to a July 12 maximum near 27–28 °C in Istanbul, consistent with early-month climatology and the moderating influence of Bosphorus and Black Sea breezes that typically cap peaks 3–5 °C below inland values. Traders have clustered probability on the 26–28 °C brackets because current GFS and ECMWF runs show weak synoptic forcing, limited cloud cover, and light northerly flow that favors modest daytime heating without strong advection of hotter continental air. Slight upward bias in some extended forecasts reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any sea-breeze front, while the low odds on 31 °C+ outcomes align with historical rarity of such extremes before mid-July. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range as resolution criteria focus on official Turkish Meteorological Service observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Istambul em 12 de julho?
Temperatura mais alta em Istambul em 12 de julho?
27°C 100.0%
22°C ou menos <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$33,827 Vol.
$33,827 Vol.
12 jul 2026
22°C ou menos
Não
23°C
Não
24°C
Não
25°C
Não
26°C
Não
27°C
Sim
28°C
Não
29°C
Não
30°C
Não
31°C
Não
32°C ou mais
Não
27°C 100.0%
22°C ou menos <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$33,827 Vol.
$33,827 Vol.
12 jul 2026
22°C ou menos
$1,031 Vol.
Não
23°C
$406 Vol.
Não
24°C
$1,032 Vol.
Não
25°C
$2,953 Vol.
Não
26°C
$7,795 Vol.
Não
27°C
$6,208 Vol.
Sim
28°C
$6,946 Vol.
Não
29°C
$2,776 Vol.
Não
30°C
$2,638 Vol.
Não
31°C
$871 Vol.
Não
32°C ou mais
$1,171 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global ensembles points to a July 12 maximum near 27–28 °C in Istanbul, consistent with early-month climatology and the moderating influence of Bosphorus and Black Sea breezes that typically cap peaks 3–5 °C below inland values. Traders have clustered probability on the 26–28 °C brackets because current GFS and ECMWF runs show weak synoptic forcing, limited cloud cover, and light northerly flow that favors modest daytime heating without strong advection of hotter continental air. Slight upward bias in some extended forecasts reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any sea-breeze front, while the low odds on 31 °C+ outcomes align with historical rarity of such extremes before mid-July. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range as resolution criteria focus on official Turkish Meteorological Service observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$33,827Data de Término
12 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global ensembles points to a July 12 maximum near 27–28 °C in Istanbul, consistent with early-month climatology and the moderating influence of Bosphorus and Black Sea breezes that typically cap peaks 3–5 °C below inland values. Traders have clustered probability on the 26–28 °C brackets because current GFS and ECMWF runs show weak synoptic forcing, limited cloud cover, and light northerly flow that favors modest daytime heating without strong advection of hotter continental air. Slight upward bias in some extended forecasts reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any sea-breeze front, while the low odds on 31 °C+ outcomes align with historical rarity of such extremes before mid-July. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range as resolution criteria focus on official Turkish Meteorological Service observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33,827Data de Término
12 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Recent model consensus from global ensembles points to a July 12 maximum near 27–28 °C in Istanbul, consistent with early-month climatology and the moderating influence of Bosphorus and Black Sea breezes that typically cap peaks 3–5 °C below inland values. Traders have clustered probability on the 26–28 °C brackets because current GFS and ECMWF runs show weak synoptic forcing, limited cloud cover, and light northerly flow that favors modest daytime heating without strong advection of hotter continental air. Slight upward bias in some extended forecasts reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any sea-breeze front, while the low odds on 31 °C+ outcomes align with historical rarity of such extremes before mid-July. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range as resolution criteria focus on official Turkish Meteorological Service observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions