Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 24°C (100%) as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 9, backed by near-complete NOAA observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM), where hourly METAR reports peaked at 24°C amid mild southerly winds (10-18 km/h), partial cloud cover, and hazy conditions typical of early May's transitional weather. This aligns with ECMWF and GFS model runs from May 8 forecasting highs of 23-25°C, influenced by warm air advection from the Mediterranean and above-average seasonal norms (historical May average ~21°C). With the dataset largely finalized 24 hours post-event, revision risk is minimal; only an improbable official NOAA adjustment to a higher reading from overlooked hourly data could challenge this positioning, pending final timeseries confirmation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Istambul no dia 9 de maio?
Temperatura mais alta em Istambul no dia 9 de maio?
24°C 100.0%
17°C ou menos <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$92,146 Vol.
$92,146 Vol.
9 mai 2026
17°C ou menos
Não
18°C
Não
19°C
Não
20°C
Não
21°C
Não
22°C
Não
23°C
Não
24°C
Sim
25°C
Não
26°C
Não
27°C ou mais
Não
24°C 100.0%
17°C ou menos <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$92,146 Vol.
$92,146 Vol.
9 mai 2026
17°C ou menos
$3,114 Vol.
Não
18°C
$3,285 Vol.
Não
19°C
$8,085 Vol.
Não
20°C
$6,384 Vol.
Não
21°C
$1,585 Vol.
Não
22°C
$2,767 Vol.
Não
23°C
$25,707 Vol.
Não
24°C
$13,151 Vol.
Sim
25°C
$11,325 Vol.
Não
26°C
$9,335 Vol.
Não
27°C ou mais
$7,408 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 24°C (100%) as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 9, backed by near-complete NOAA observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM), where hourly METAR reports peaked at 24°C amid mild southerly winds (10-18 km/h), partial cloud cover, and hazy conditions typical of early May's transitional weather. This aligns with ECMWF and GFS model runs from May 8 forecasting highs of 23-25°C, influenced by warm air advection from the Mediterranean and above-average seasonal norms (historical May average ~21°C). With the dataset largely finalized 24 hours post-event, revision risk is minimal; only an improbable official NOAA adjustment to a higher reading from overlooked hourly data could challenge this positioning, pending final timeseries confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 7, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$92,146Data de Término
9 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 7, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 24°C (100%) as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 9, backed by near-complete NOAA observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM), where hourly METAR reports peaked at 24°C amid mild southerly winds (10-18 km/h), partial cloud cover, and hazy conditions typical of early May's transitional weather. This aligns with ECMWF and GFS model runs from May 8 forecasting highs of 23-25°C, influenced by warm air advection from the Mediterranean and above-average seasonal norms (historical May average ~21°C). With the dataset largely finalized 24 hours post-event, revision risk is minimal; only an improbable official NOAA adjustment to a higher reading from overlooked hourly data could challenge this positioning, pending final timeseries confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$92,146Data de Término
9 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 7, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 24°C (100%) as Istanbul's highest temperature on May 9, backed by near-complete NOAA observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM), where hourly METAR reports peaked at 24°C amid mild southerly winds (10-18 km/h), partial cloud cover, and hazy conditions typical of early May's transitional weather. This aligns with ECMWF and GFS model runs from May 8 forecasting highs of 23-25°C, influenced by warm air advection from the Mediterranean and above-average seasonal norms (historical May average ~21°C). With the dataset largely finalized 24 hours post-event, revision risk is minimal; only an improbable official NOAA adjustment to a higher reading from overlooked hourly data could challenge this positioning, pending final timeseries confirmation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions