Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Moscow's highest temperature on April 19, with 5°C and 6°C each at 19% implied probability and 9°C or higher close at 18%, driven by a recent cold snap warning from Russia's Meteo center. Over the past 48 hours, major models like those powering timeanddate and yr.no have converged on daytime highs of 5–6°C under overcast skies, northerly winds around 15–20 km/h, and late sprinkles (up to 58% precipitation chance), as a cold air mass advects southward following warmer mid-week readings near 14°C on April 17. Differentiating factors include potential cloud breaks allowing brief solar heating toward 9°C or prolonged overcast and rain suppressing peaks below 5°C; new ECMWF and GFS runs expected today could refine this ahead of resolution via official observations. Historical mid-April norms hover around 10–12°C, underscoring the anomalously cool setup.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on April 19?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 19?
9°C or higher 30%
6°C 25%
5°C 19%
8°C 13%
NOVO
NOVO
19 abr 2026
-1°C or below
2%
0°C
2%
1°C
1%
2°C
1%
3°C
7%
4°C
11%
5°C
19%
6°C
25%
7°C
11%
8°C
13%
9°C or higher
19%
9°C or higher 30%
6°C 25%
5°C 19%
8°C 13%
NOVO
NOVO
19 abr 2026
-1°C or below
$150 Vol.
2%
0°C
$10 Vol.
2%
1°C
$26 Vol.
1%
2°C
$47 Vol.
1%
3°C
$27 Vol.
7%
4°C
$0 Vol.
11%
5°C
$0 Vol.
19%
6°C
$9 Vol.
25%
7°C
$158 Vol.
11%
8°C
$2 Vol.
13%
9°C or higher
$13 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Moscow's highest temperature on April 19, with 5°C and 6°C each at 19% implied probability and 9°C or higher close at 18%, driven by a recent cold snap warning from Russia's Meteo center. Over the past 48 hours, major models like those powering timeanddate and yr.no have converged on daytime highs of 5–6°C under overcast skies, northerly winds around 15–20 km/h, and late sprinkles (up to 58% precipitation chance), as a cold air mass advects southward following warmer mid-week readings near 14°C on April 17. Differentiating factors include potential cloud breaks allowing brief solar heating toward 9°C or prolonged overcast and rain suppressing peaks below 5°C; new ECMWF and GFS runs expected today could refine this ahead of resolution via official observations. Historical mid-April norms hover around 10–12°C, underscoring the anomalously cool setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
Volume
$379Data de Término
19 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Moscow's highest temperature on April 19, with 5°C and 6°C each at 19% implied probability and 9°C or higher close at 18%, driven by a recent cold snap warning from Russia's Meteo center. Over the past 48 hours, major models like those powering timeanddate and yr.no have converged on daytime highs of 5–6°C under overcast skies, northerly winds around 15–20 km/h, and late sprinkles (up to 58% precipitation chance), as a cold air mass advects southward following warmer mid-week readings near 14°C on April 17. Differentiating factors include potential cloud breaks allowing brief solar heating toward 9°C or prolonged overcast and rain suppressing peaks below 5°C; new ECMWF and GFS runs expected today could refine this ahead of resolution via official observations. Historical mid-April norms hover around 10–12°C, underscoring the anomalously cool setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$379Data de Término
19 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Moscow's highest temperature on April 19, with 5°C and 6°C each at 19% implied probability and 9°C or higher close at 18%, driven by a recent cold snap warning from Russia's Meteo center. Over the past 48 hours, major models like those powering timeanddate and yr.no have converged on daytime highs of 5–6°C under overcast skies, northerly winds around 15–20 km/h, and late sprinkles (up to 58% precipitation chance), as a cold air mass advects southward following warmer mid-week readings near 14°C on April 17. Differentiating factors include potential cloud breaks allowing brief solar heating toward 9°C or prolonged overcast and rain suppressing peaks below 5°C; new ECMWF and GFS runs expected today could refine this ahead of resolution via official observations. Historical mid-April norms hover around 10–12°C, underscoring the anomalously cool setup.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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