Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly assigns 100% implied probability to 29°C as São Paulo's highest temperature on May 5, 2026, reflecting official observations from the São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR) meteorological station, where METAR reports confirmed this peak amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) data aligns, showing daytime highs reaching 29°C during a brief autumn warm spell driven by high-pressure subsidence and minimal cloud cover, exceeding typical May averages of 23–25°C. Model forecasts from INMET and Climatempo had anticipated 27–28°C, with actual readings slightly warmer due to enhanced solar heating. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-event data revisions from quality control or discrepancies between automatic and manual station records, though such adjustments are infrequent for resolved daily maxima. Final INMET bulletin expected within 48 hours.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 5?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 5?
29°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$51,494 Vol.
$51,494 Vol.
5 mai 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$51,494 Vol.
$51,494 Vol.
5 mai 2026
24°C or below
$10,207 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,168 Vol.
No
26°C
$4,810 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,353 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,594 Vol.
No
29°C
$7,156 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$5,653 Vol.
No
31°C
$5,644 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,591 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,858 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$2,460 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly assigns 100% implied probability to 29°C as São Paulo's highest temperature on May 5, 2026, reflecting official observations from the São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR) meteorological station, where METAR reports confirmed this peak amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) data aligns, showing daytime highs reaching 29°C during a brief autumn warm spell driven by high-pressure subsidence and minimal cloud cover, exceeding typical May averages of 23–25°C. Model forecasts from INMET and Climatempo had anticipated 27–28°C, with actual readings slightly warmer due to enhanced solar heating. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-event data revisions from quality control or discrepancies between automatic and manual station records, though such adjustments are infrequent for resolved daily maxima. Final INMET bulletin expected within 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volume
$51,494Data de Término
5 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly assigns 100% implied probability to 29°C as São Paulo's highest temperature on May 5, 2026, reflecting official observations from the São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR) meteorological station, where METAR reports confirmed this peak amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) data aligns, showing daytime highs reaching 29°C during a brief autumn warm spell driven by high-pressure subsidence and minimal cloud cover, exceeding typical May averages of 23–25°C. Model forecasts from INMET and Climatempo had anticipated 27–28°C, with actual readings slightly warmer due to enhanced solar heating. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-event data revisions from quality control or discrepancies between automatic and manual station records, though such adjustments are infrequent for resolved daily maxima. Final INMET bulletin expected within 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$51,494Data de Término
5 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly assigns 100% implied probability to 29°C as São Paulo's highest temperature on May 5, 2026, reflecting official observations from the São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR) meteorological station, where METAR reports confirmed this peak amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) data aligns, showing daytime highs reaching 29°C during a brief autumn warm spell driven by high-pressure subsidence and minimal cloud cover, exceeding typical May averages of 23–25°C. Model forecasts from INMET and Climatempo had anticipated 27–28°C, with actual readings slightly warmer due to enhanced solar heating. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-event data revisions from quality control or discrepancies between automatic and manual station records, though such adjustments are infrequent for resolved daily maxima. Final INMET bulletin expected within 48 hours.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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