**A magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 is viewed as physically impossible by the geophysical community, driving the overwhelming 99.3% market-implied probability on “No.”** Earthquake magnitude scales with the length and area of the fault rupture; a 10.0 event would require a fault roughly one-third of Earth’s circumference—far longer than any known subduction zone or other tectonic feature. The U.S. Geological Survey explicitly states that no fault capable of producing a magnitude 10 exists, and the largest instrumentally recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia earthquake of 1960 in Chile. Only five earthquakes of 9.0 or above have occurred since 1900, all in the 9.0–9.5 range and spaced decades apart. With only four months remaining until the end of 2026, the absence of any plausible mechanism for such an extreme rupture produces near-certain trader consensus. Historical frequency data further reinforce this: great earthquakes (8.0+) average roughly one per year globally, while 9.0+ events are orders of magnitude rarer. No recent seismic activity, model runs, or monitoring updates from agencies such as the USGS suggest any change in these fundamental limits. The only theoretically conceivable (and still extraordinarily remote) pathways would involve non-tectonic triggers such as a massive asteroid impact, but these fall outside standard earthquake classification and have never produced a confirmed magnitude-10 event in the geologic record. Market odds therefore reflect both the established physical constraints and the negligible chance of any measurement or definitional surprise altering the outcome before resolution.