As of early August 2026, USGS records show roughly eight to ten magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide, aligning with the historical average pace of 15–18 events annually driven by steady tectonic strain release along subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Recent activity, including the M7.8 offshore the Philippines in June, paired M7.2–7.5 shocks in Venezuela, and the M7.3 off Mexico in July, reflects typical seasonal variability rather than an anomalous cluster or quiet period. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin incorporates this measured rate alongside plate-boundary monitoring data, with no major forecast shifts indicating elevated or suppressed totals through December. New seismic updates from USGS and global networks will continue to inform resolution thresholds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?
Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?
14–16 45%
17–19 30%
11–13 18%
20+ 9.0%
$1,365,360 Vol.
$1,365,360 Vol.
31 dez 2026
8–10
1%
11–13
18%
14–16
45%
17–19
30%
20+
9%
14–16 45%
17–19 30%
11–13 18%
20+ 9.0%
$1,365,360 Vol.
$1,365,360 Vol.
31 dez 2026
8–10
$142,617 Vol.
1%
11–13
$414,075 Vol.
18%
14–16
$187,320 Vol.
45%
17–19
$211,709 Vol.
30%
20+
$65,606 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.As of early August 2026, USGS records show roughly eight to ten magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide, aligning with the historical average pace of 15–18 events annually driven by steady tectonic strain release along subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Recent activity, including the M7.8 offshore the Philippines in June, paired M7.2–7.5 shocks in Venezuela, and the M7.3 off Mexico in July, reflects typical seasonal variability rather than an anomalous cluster or quiet period. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin incorporates this measured rate alongside plate-boundary monitoring data, with no major forecast shifts indicating elevated or suppressed totals through December. New seismic updates from USGS and global networks will continue to inform resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,365,360Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.As of early August 2026, USGS records show roughly eight to ten magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide, aligning with the historical average pace of 15–18 events annually driven by steady tectonic strain release along subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Recent activity, including the M7.8 offshore the Philippines in June, paired M7.2–7.5 shocks in Venezuela, and the M7.3 off Mexico in July, reflects typical seasonal variability rather than an anomalous cluster or quiet period. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin incorporates this measured rate alongside plate-boundary monitoring data, with no major forecast shifts indicating elevated or suppressed totals through December. New seismic updates from USGS and global networks will continue to inform resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,365,360Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of early August 2026, USGS records show roughly eight to ten magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide, aligning with the historical average pace of 15–18 events annually driven by steady tectonic strain release along subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Recent activity, including the M7.8 offshore the Philippines in June, paired M7.2–7.5 shocks in Venezuela, and the M7.3 off Mexico in July, reflects typical seasonal variability rather than an anomalous cluster or quiet period. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin incorporates this measured rate alongside plate-boundary monitoring data, with no major forecast shifts indicating elevated or suppressed totals through December. New seismic updates from USGS and global networks will continue to inform resolution thresholds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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