As of early August 2026, USGS records show roughly eight to ten magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide, placing the annual total on pace for the long-term average of 15–18 events driven by steady tectonic strain release along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire. Recent activity, including the M7.8 offshore the Philippines in June, paired M7.2–7.5 shocks in Venezuela, the M7.3 off Mexico in July, and an earlier M7.5 near Tonga, reflects typical seasonal variability without anomalous clustering. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin aligns with this rate and plate-boundary monitoring data showing no elevated or suppressed activity projected through year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?
Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?
14–16 45%
17–19 30%
11–13 18%
20+ 9.2%
$1,365,360 Vol.
$1,365,360 Vol.
31 dez 2026
8–10
1%
11–13
18%
14–16
45%
17–19
30%
20+
9%
14–16 45%
17–19 30%
11–13 18%
20+ 9.2%
$1,365,360 Vol.
$1,365,360 Vol.
31 dez 2026
8–10
$142,617 Vol.
1%
11–13
$414,075 Vol.
18%
14–16
$187,320 Vol.
45%
17–19
$211,709 Vol.
30%
20+
$65,606 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.As of early August 2026, USGS records show roughly eight to ten magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide, placing the annual total on pace for the long-term average of 15–18 events driven by steady tectonic strain release along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire. Recent activity, including the M7.8 offshore the Philippines in June, paired M7.2–7.5 shocks in Venezuela, the M7.3 off Mexico in July, and an earlier M7.5 near Tonga, reflects typical seasonal variability without anomalous clustering. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin aligns with this rate and plate-boundary monitoring data showing no elevated or suppressed activity projected through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,365,360Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.As of early August 2026, USGS records show roughly eight to ten magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide, placing the annual total on pace for the long-term average of 15–18 events driven by steady tectonic strain release along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire. Recent activity, including the M7.8 offshore the Philippines in June, paired M7.2–7.5 shocks in Venezuela, the M7.3 off Mexico in July, and an earlier M7.5 near Tonga, reflects typical seasonal variability without anomalous clustering. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin aligns with this rate and plate-boundary monitoring data showing no elevated or suppressed activity projected through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,365,360Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of early August 2026, USGS records show roughly eight to ten magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide, placing the annual total on pace for the long-term average of 15–18 events driven by steady tectonic strain release along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire. Recent activity, including the M7.8 offshore the Philippines in June, paired M7.2–7.5 shocks in Venezuela, the M7.3 off Mexico in July, and an earlier M7.5 near Tonga, reflects typical seasonal variability without anomalous clustering. Trader consensus favoring the 14–16 bin aligns with this rate and plate-boundary monitoring data showing no elevated or suppressed activity projected through year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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