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Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?

icon for Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?

Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?

dez 31

dez 31

14–16 47%

17–19 35%

20+ 11.9%

11–13 9%

Polymarket

$1,389,237 Vol.

14–16 47%

17–19 35%

20+ 11.9%

11–13 9%

Polymarket

$1,389,237 Vol.

8–10

$159,694 Vol.

<1%

11–13

$416,675 Vol.

9%

14–16

$188,326 Vol.

47%

17–19

$212,722 Vol.

35%

20+

$67,787 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.**Global seismic activity remains on a typical trajectory in 2026**, with 11 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded through mid-August according to USGS data, consistent with the long-term annual average of roughly 15–16 events. Most activity has clustered along the Pacific Ring of Fire, driven by subduction zone tectonics at plate boundaries, including recent events in Indonesia, Colombia, and Mexico. Historical records show substantial year-to-year variability from natural fluctuations in stress release along faults, with no evidence of anomalous acceleration. Market-implied probabilities favor 14–16 total quakes, reflecting trader assessment that the remaining months will follow climatological norms without major deviations from current model consensus on plate motion rates.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,389,237
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Resultado proposto: Não

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Não

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.**Global seismic activity remains on a typical trajectory in 2026**, with 11 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded through mid-August according to USGS data, consistent with the long-term annual average of roughly 15–16 events. Most activity has clustered along the Pacific Ring of Fire, driven by subduction zone tectonics at plate boundaries, including recent events in Indonesia, Colombia, and Mexico. Historical records show substantial year-to-year variability from natural fluctuations in stress release along faults, with no evidence of anomalous acceleration. Market-implied probabilities favor 14–16 total quakes, reflecting trader assessment that the remaining months will follow climatological norms without major deviations from current model consensus on plate motion rates.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,389,237
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Resultado proposto: Não

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Não

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "14–16" at 47%, followed by "17–19" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 31, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?" is "14–16" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "17–19" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quantos terramotos de 7,0 ou mais em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.