Recent National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Houston on September 22 project a daily maximum near 96°F under sunny conditions with light northeast winds and heat indices near 105°F, driven by persistent subtropical ridging and Gulf moisture advection. This aligns with September climatology (average high ~88–90°F) but sits well below the 99–108°F late-month records, creating divergence in trader views. Key differentiating variables include model spread on boundary-layer mixing, afternoon convective timing that could cap temperatures, and any late-arriving frontal moisture that might suppress the peak. With 106°F+ and sub-88°F outcomes each near 50% implied probability, markets appear to price residual forecast uncertainty and potential measurement-site variability ahead of final NWS verification.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Houston em 22 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta em Houston em 22 de setembro?
96-97°F 44%
94-95°F 36%
100-101°F 19%
92-93°F 18%
NOVO
NOVO
22 set 2026
87°F ou menos
5%
88-89°F
6%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
18%
94-95°F
36%
96-97°F
44%
98-99°F
17%
100-101°F
19%
102-103°F
10%
104-105°F
5%
106°F ou mais
5%
96-97°F 44%
94-95°F 36%
100-101°F 19%
92-93°F 18%
NOVO
NOVO
22 set 2026
87°F ou menos
$0 Vol.
5%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
6%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
10%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
18%
94-95°F
$3 Vol.
36%
96-97°F
$10 Vol.
44%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
17%
100-101°F
$0 Vol.
19%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
10%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
5%
106°F ou mais
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Houston on September 22 project a daily maximum near 96°F under sunny conditions with light northeast winds and heat indices near 105°F, driven by persistent subtropical ridging and Gulf moisture advection. This aligns with September climatology (average high ~88–90°F) but sits well below the 99–108°F late-month records, creating divergence in trader views. Key differentiating variables include model spread on boundary-layer mixing, afternoon convective timing that could cap temperatures, and any late-arriving frontal moisture that might suppress the peak. With 106°F+ and sub-88°F outcomes each near 50% implied probability, markets appear to price residual forecast uncertainty and potential measurement-site variability ahead of final NWS verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 20, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$13Data de Término
22 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 20, 2026, 3:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Houston on September 22 project a daily maximum near 96°F under sunny conditions with light northeast winds and heat indices near 105°F, driven by persistent subtropical ridging and Gulf moisture advection. This aligns with September climatology (average high ~88–90°F) but sits well below the 99–108°F late-month records, creating divergence in trader views. Key differentiating variables include model spread on boundary-layer mixing, afternoon convective timing that could cap temperatures, and any late-arriving frontal moisture that might suppress the peak. With 106°F+ and sub-88°F outcomes each near 50% implied probability, markets appear to price residual forecast uncertainty and potential measurement-site variability ahead of final NWS verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13Data de Término
22 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 20, 2026, 3:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Houston on September 22 project a daily maximum near 96°F under sunny conditions with light northeast winds and heat indices near 105°F, driven by persistent subtropical ridging and Gulf moisture advection. This aligns with September climatology (average high ~88–90°F) but sits well below the 99–108°F late-month records, creating divergence in trader views. Key differentiating variables include model spread on boundary-layer mixing, afternoon convective timing that could cap temperatures, and any late-arriving frontal moisture that might suppress the peak. With 106°F+ and sub-88°F outcomes each near 50% implied probability, markets appear to price residual forecast uncertainty and potential measurement-site variability ahead of final NWS verification.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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