Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.6°C and over 90% odds of a very strong event through fall 2026, represent the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward below-average Seattle precipitation. NOAA and regional outlooks favor drier-than-normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest in September–November, consistent with suppressed storm tracks and warmer, more stable air masses typical of El Niño onset. Historical analogs and model guidance show September totals often clustering near or below the 1.8–2 inch climatological mean as the rainy season transition begins, though early-month variability and potential late-September atmospheric rivers introduce spread across the 1–3 inch bins. The closely matched leading probabilities reflect ongoing uncertainty in exact monthly accumulation amid evolving forecast guidance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPrecipitação em Seattle em setembro?
Precipitação em Seattle em setembro?
<1" 26%
1-1.5" 20%
1.5-2" 17%
2.5-3" 16%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
<1"
26%
1-1.5"
20%
1.5-2"
17%
2.5-3"
16%
2-2.5"
14%
3-4"
11%
>4"
8%
<1" 26%
1-1.5" 20%
1.5-2" 17%
2.5-3" 16%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
<1"
$156 Vol.
26%
1-1.5"
$118 Vol.
20%
1.5-2"
$112 Vol.
17%
2.5-3"
$182 Vol.
16%
2-2.5"
$130 Vol.
14%
3-4"
$203 Vol.
11%
>4"
$203 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.6°C and over 90% odds of a very strong event through fall 2026, represent the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward below-average Seattle precipitation. NOAA and regional outlooks favor drier-than-normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest in September–November, consistent with suppressed storm tracks and warmer, more stable air masses typical of El Niño onset. Historical analogs and model guidance show September totals often clustering near or below the 1.8–2 inch climatological mean as the rainy season transition begins, though early-month variability and potential late-September atmospheric rivers introduce spread across the 1–3 inch bins. The closely matched leading probabilities reflect ongoing uncertainty in exact monthly accumulation amid evolving forecast guidance.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$1,104Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.6°C and over 90% odds of a very strong event through fall 2026, represent the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward below-average Seattle precipitation. NOAA and regional outlooks favor drier-than-normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest in September–November, consistent with suppressed storm tracks and warmer, more stable air masses typical of El Niño onset. Historical analogs and model guidance show September totals often clustering near or below the 1.8–2 inch climatological mean as the rainy season transition begins, though early-month variability and potential late-September atmospheric rivers introduce spread across the 1–3 inch bins. The closely matched leading probabilities reflect ongoing uncertainty in exact monthly accumulation amid evolving forecast guidance.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,104Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.6°C and over 90% odds of a very strong event through fall 2026, represent the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward below-average Seattle precipitation. NOAA and regional outlooks favor drier-than-normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest in September–November, consistent with suppressed storm tracks and warmer, more stable air masses typical of El Niño onset. Historical analogs and model guidance show September totals often clustering near or below the 1.8–2 inch climatological mean as the rainy season transition begins, though early-month variability and potential late-September atmospheric rivers introduce spread across the 1–3 inch bins. The closely matched leading probabilities reflect ongoing uncertainty in exact monthly accumulation amid evolving forecast guidance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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