A rapidly strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C in August 2026 and model consensus pointing to a historic peak near +3–4°C by November–December, stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content, including daily extra-polar SSTs hitting 21.1°C in late August, adds to the background anthropogenic warming trend and raises the likelihood of another top-three September. However, the typical 3–6 month lag in global temperature response to El Niño means September will capture only partial amplification, creating tight differentiation among first-, second-, and third-hottest rankings. Model spread on exact peak timing and strength, plus dataset variations in historical baselines, sustains the close market-implied odds near 49% each.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1º, 2º ou 3º de setembro de 2026 mais quente já registrado?
1º, 2º ou 3º de setembro de 2026 mais quente já registrado?
Mais quente 49%
2º mais quente 49%
3º mais quente 49%
4º ou inferior 49%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
Mais quente
49%
2º mais quente
49%
3º mais quente
49%
4º ou inferior
49%
Mais quente 49%
2º mais quente 49%
3º mais quente 49%
4º ou inferior 49%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
Mais quente
$0 Vol.
49%
2º mais quente
$0 Vol.
49%
3º mais quente
$0 Vol.
49%
4º ou inferior
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C in August 2026 and model consensus pointing to a historic peak near +3–4°C by November–December, stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content, including daily extra-polar SSTs hitting 21.1°C in late August, adds to the background anthropogenic warming trend and raises the likelihood of another top-three September. However, the typical 3–6 month lag in global temperature response to El Niño means September will capture only partial amplification, creating tight differentiation among first-, second-, and third-hottest rankings. Model spread on exact peak timing and strength, plus dataset variations in historical baselines, sustains the close market-implied odds near 49% each.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C in August 2026 and model consensus pointing to a historic peak near +3–4°C by November–December, stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content, including daily extra-polar SSTs hitting 21.1°C in late August, adds to the background anthropogenic warming trend and raises the likelihood of another top-three September. However, the typical 3–6 month lag in global temperature response to El Niño means September will capture only partial amplification, creating tight differentiation among first-, second-, and third-hottest rankings. Model spread on exact peak timing and strength, plus dataset variations in historical baselines, sustains the close market-implied odds near 49% each.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$0Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C in August 2026 and model consensus pointing to a historic peak near +3–4°C by November–December, stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content, including daily extra-polar SSTs hitting 21.1°C in late August, adds to the background anthropogenic warming trend and raises the likelihood of another top-three September. However, the typical 3–6 month lag in global temperature response to El Niño means September will capture only partial amplification, creating tight differentiation among first-, second-, and third-hottest rankings. Model spread on exact peak timing and strength, plus dataset variations in historical baselines, sustains the close market-implied odds near 49% each.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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