Robust near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and international space agencies drives the 98.5% market-implied odds against a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, reflecting decades of telescopic surveys and orbital tracking that have cataloged nearly all sizable threats well in advance. No known asteroids of sufficient mass and trajectory align with Earth impact windows this year, consistent with the rarity of such events—roughly once every few centuries. While improved radar and infrared detection systems continue to refine predictions, the strong trader consensus accounts for the slim chance of an undetected small body or last-minute orbital perturbation, though regulatory or technical factors play no direct role in altering natural celestial paths.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 1 megatonelada em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 1 megatonelada em 2026?
Sim
2% chance
$116,334 Vol.
$116,334 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
2% chance
$116,334 Vol.
$116,334 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Robust near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and international space agencies drives the 98.5% market-implied odds against a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, reflecting decades of telescopic surveys and orbital tracking that have cataloged nearly all sizable threats well in advance. No known asteroids of sufficient mass and trajectory align with Earth impact windows this year, consistent with the rarity of such events—roughly once every few centuries. While improved radar and infrared detection systems continue to refine predictions, the strong trader consensus accounts for the slim chance of an undetected small body or last-minute orbital perturbation, though regulatory or technical factors play no direct role in altering natural celestial paths.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$116,334Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Robust near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and international space agencies drives the 98.5% market-implied odds against a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, reflecting decades of telescopic surveys and orbital tracking that have cataloged nearly all sizable threats well in advance. No known asteroids of sufficient mass and trajectory align with Earth impact windows this year, consistent with the rarity of such events—roughly once every few centuries. While improved radar and infrared detection systems continue to refine predictions, the strong trader consensus accounts for the slim chance of an undetected small body or last-minute orbital perturbation, though regulatory or technical factors play no direct role in altering natural celestial paths.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$116,334Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and international space agencies drives the 98.5% market-implied odds against a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, reflecting decades of telescopic surveys and orbital tracking that have cataloged nearly all sizable threats well in advance. No known asteroids of sufficient mass and trajectory align with Earth impact windows this year, consistent with the rarity of such events—roughly once every few centuries. While improved radar and infrared detection systems continue to refine predictions, the strong trader consensus accounts for the slim chance of an undetected small body or last-minute orbital perturbation, though regulatory or technical factors play no direct role in altering natural celestial paths.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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