No cataloged near-Earth objects pose a collision risk capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst through the end of 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring. Historical bolide data indicate meter-scale impactors reach 5 kt TNT equivalent roughly once per year on average, yet none have been recorded in the first seven-plus months of 2026, lowering the remaining-year probability. Most such events occur over oceans or remote areas and go undetected by ground sensors. Ongoing surveys continue to refine the small-object flux, but current orbital solutions and atmospheric monitoring reinforce trader consensus favoring “No” at 73.5%.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Sim
27% chance
$311,616 Vol.
$311,616 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
27% chance
$311,616 Vol.
$311,616 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No cataloged near-Earth objects pose a collision risk capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst through the end of 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring. Historical bolide data indicate meter-scale impactors reach 5 kt TNT equivalent roughly once per year on average, yet none have been recorded in the first seven-plus months of 2026, lowering the remaining-year probability. Most such events occur over oceans or remote areas and go undetected by ground sensors. Ongoing surveys continue to refine the small-object flux, but current orbital solutions and atmospheric monitoring reinforce trader consensus favoring “No” at 73.5%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$311,616Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No cataloged near-Earth objects pose a collision risk capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst through the end of 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring. Historical bolide data indicate meter-scale impactors reach 5 kt TNT equivalent roughly once per year on average, yet none have been recorded in the first seven-plus months of 2026, lowering the remaining-year probability. Most such events occur over oceans or remote areas and go undetected by ground sensors. Ongoing surveys continue to refine the small-object flux, but current orbital solutions and atmospheric monitoring reinforce trader consensus favoring “No” at 73.5%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$311,616Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No cataloged near-Earth objects pose a collision risk capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst through the end of 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring. Historical bolide data indicate meter-scale impactors reach 5 kt TNT equivalent roughly once per year on average, yet none have been recorded in the first seven-plus months of 2026, lowering the remaining-year probability. Most such events occur over oceans or remote areas and go undetected by ground sensors. Ongoing surveys continue to refine the small-object flux, but current orbital solutions and atmospheric monitoring reinforce trader consensus favoring “No” at 73.5%.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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