No at 76% reflects the low historical frequency of 5 kt-scale bolides, which occur roughly once every several years based on NASA JPL fireball records and CTBTO infrasound data. With roughly three months remaining in 2026, no catalogued near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre carry trajectories capable of delivering that energy threshold. Recent small atmospheric entries, such as the sub-meter 2026 RW 1 detected hours before impact, underscore that objects energetic enough for a qualifying airburst remain rare. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring, plus refined orbital solutions, have identified no new risks, reinforcing trader consensus around base rates rather than any imminent threat.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Sim
24% chance
$314,170 Vol.
$314,170 Vol.
28 fev 2027
Sim
24% chance
$314,170 Vol.
$314,170 Vol.
28 fev 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 76% reflects the low historical frequency of 5 kt-scale bolides, which occur roughly once every several years based on NASA JPL fireball records and CTBTO infrasound data. With roughly three months remaining in 2026, no catalogued near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre carry trajectories capable of delivering that energy threshold. Recent small atmospheric entries, such as the sub-meter 2026 RW 1 detected hours before impact, underscore that objects energetic enough for a qualifying airburst remain rare. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring, plus refined orbital solutions, have identified no new risks, reinforcing trader consensus around base rates rather than any imminent threat.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$314,170Data de Término
1 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 76% reflects the low historical frequency of 5 kt-scale bolides, which occur roughly once every several years based on NASA JPL fireball records and CTBTO infrasound data. With roughly three months remaining in 2026, no catalogued near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre carry trajectories capable of delivering that energy threshold. Recent small atmospheric entries, such as the sub-meter 2026 RW 1 detected hours before impact, underscore that objects energetic enough for a qualifying airburst remain rare. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring, plus refined orbital solutions, have identified no new risks, reinforcing trader consensus around base rates rather than any imminent threat.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$0Data de Término
1 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...No at 76% reflects the low historical frequency of 5 kt-scale bolides, which occur roughly once every several years based on NASA JPL fireball records and CTBTO infrasound data. With roughly three months remaining in 2026, no catalogued near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre carry trajectories capable of delivering that energy threshold. Recent small atmospheric entries, such as the sub-meter 2026 RW 1 detected hours before impact, underscore that objects energetic enough for a qualifying airburst remain rare. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring, plus refined orbital solutions, have identified no new risks, reinforcing trader consensus around base rates rather than any imminent threat.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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