The low historical frequency of 5kt-scale airbursts, combined with comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring showing no predicted impacts for 2026, underpins the 71.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Government sensors have recorded roughly 25–30 bolides annually over recent decades, with only a small fraction reaching 5kt TNT equivalent, as seen in events like the 2006 Atlantic airburst; larger documented cases such as Chelyabinsk (roughly 500kt) occur far less often. NASA’s ongoing surveys have identified no objects on collision courses capable of delivering this energy release next year, though model uncertainties and the possibility of undetected small bodies maintain a modest chance of an event.