No confirmed 5kt-scale bolide has occurred in the first half of 2026 despite elevated fireball reports, keeping the market-implied odds of a qualifying airburst this year near 25% for Yes. NASA and JPL monitoring show that meter-scale objects releasing roughly 5 kilotons of TNT strike Earth’s atmosphere at a baseline rate of about once per year on average, yet most detonate undetected over oceans or remote regions. Recent close approaches by small near-Earth objects such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 LD produced no impact risk, and no catalogued asteroid currently carries even a 1% probability of striking this year. Traders therefore price the remaining six months conservatively, recognizing both the statistical window for an event and the high likelihood it evades detection or falls below threshold.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Sim
$306,674 Vol.
$306,674 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$306,674 Vol.
$306,674 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No confirmed 5kt-scale bolide has occurred in the first half of 2026 despite elevated fireball reports, keeping the market-implied odds of a qualifying airburst this year near 25% for Yes. NASA and JPL monitoring show that meter-scale objects releasing roughly 5 kilotons of TNT strike Earth’s atmosphere at a baseline rate of about once per year on average, yet most detonate undetected over oceans or remote regions. Recent close approaches by small near-Earth objects such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 LD produced no impact risk, and no catalogued asteroid currently carries even a 1% probability of striking this year. Traders therefore price the remaining six months conservatively, recognizing both the statistical window for an event and the high likelihood it evades detection or falls below threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$306,674Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No confirmed 5kt-scale bolide has occurred in the first half of 2026 despite elevated fireball reports, keeping the market-implied odds of a qualifying airburst this year near 25% for Yes. NASA and JPL monitoring show that meter-scale objects releasing roughly 5 kilotons of TNT strike Earth’s atmosphere at a baseline rate of about once per year on average, yet most detonate undetected over oceans or remote regions. Recent close approaches by small near-Earth objects such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 LD produced no impact risk, and no catalogued asteroid currently carries even a 1% probability of striking this year. Traders therefore price the remaining six months conservatively, recognizing both the statistical window for an event and the high likelihood it evades detection or falls below threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$306,674Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No confirmed 5kt-scale bolide has occurred in the first half of 2026 despite elevated fireball reports, keeping the market-implied odds of a qualifying airburst this year near 25% for Yes. NASA and JPL monitoring show that meter-scale objects releasing roughly 5 kilotons of TNT strike Earth’s atmosphere at a baseline rate of about once per year on average, yet most detonate undetected over oceans or remote regions. Recent close approaches by small near-Earth objects such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 LD produced no impact risk, and no catalogued asteroid currently carries even a 1% probability of striking this year. Traders therefore price the remaining six months conservatively, recognizing both the statistical window for an event and the high likelihood it evades detection or falls below threshold.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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