SpaceX’s Starship V3 test flights in 2026, including Flight 12’s engine-out demonstration and Flight 13’s successful Starlink V3 satellite deployment plus the softest upper-stage splashdown to date with intact heatshield data, underpin the 73% market-implied probability for full reusability before 2028. These milestones reflect rapid iteration on Raptor 3 engines, reduced shielding, and return-to-launch-site hardware, positioning the vehicle closer to tower catches and rapid turnaround. Trader consensus weighs this momentum against acknowledged hurdles in reliable booster relights and high-cadence reuse highlighted in recent filings, with upcoming flights targeting orbital refueling and catch attempts as key swing factors through 2027.