Tesla's Q2 2026 shareholder letter confirmed that volume production of the Cybercab has slipped beyond 2026, following pilot builds that began at Giga Texas earlier this year. While initial units rolled off lines by April and Musk has long targeted sub-$30,000 pricing with unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability, achieving commercial sales this year faces steep barriers including regulatory approval for driverless operation, full-scale manufacturing ramp-up, and software validation at fleet levels. These timeline shifts, consistent with prior delays in Tesla's autonomous programs, underpin trader consensus around the 84% implied probability that no qualifying sales will occur before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Tesla venderá um Cybercab por 30 mil ou menos em 2026?
A Tesla venderá um Cybercab por 30 mil ou menos em 2026?
Sim
$47,840 Vol.
$47,840 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$47,840 Vol.
$47,840 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Q2 2026 shareholder letter confirmed that volume production of the Cybercab has slipped beyond 2026, following pilot builds that began at Giga Texas earlier this year. While initial units rolled off lines by April and Musk has long targeted sub-$30,000 pricing with unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability, achieving commercial sales this year faces steep barriers including regulatory approval for driverless operation, full-scale manufacturing ramp-up, and software validation at fleet levels. These timeline shifts, consistent with prior delays in Tesla's autonomous programs, underpin trader consensus around the 84% implied probability that no qualifying sales will occur before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$47,840Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Q2 2026 shareholder letter confirmed that volume production of the Cybercab has slipped beyond 2026, following pilot builds that began at Giga Texas earlier this year. While initial units rolled off lines by April and Musk has long targeted sub-$30,000 pricing with unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability, achieving commercial sales this year faces steep barriers including regulatory approval for driverless operation, full-scale manufacturing ramp-up, and software validation at fleet levels. These timeline shifts, consistent with prior delays in Tesla's autonomous programs, underpin trader consensus around the 84% implied probability that no qualifying sales will occur before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$47,840Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's Q2 2026 shareholder letter confirmed that volume production of the Cybercab has slipped beyond 2026, following pilot builds that began at Giga Texas earlier this year. While initial units rolled off lines by April and Musk has long targeted sub-$30,000 pricing with unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability, achieving commercial sales this year faces steep barriers including regulatory approval for driverless operation, full-scale manufacturing ramp-up, and software validation at fleet levels. These timeline shifts, consistent with prior delays in Tesla's autonomous programs, underpin trader consensus around the 84% implied probability that no qualifying sales will occur before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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