Meta’s rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series from its Superintelligence Labs drives current trader sentiment, with Muse Spark 1.3 launching September 2, 2026—roughly four weeks after 1.2—via the Meta Model API and Muse Code. The update delivered Meta’s largest gains yet in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding benchmarks while using fewer tokens and tool calls, prompting CEO Mark Zuckerberg to highlight “frontier performance” and tease both a larger codenamed Watermelon model and open-weights releases. This monthly-scale cadence, combined with competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic on multimodal reasoning and developer APIs, creates uncertainty around the exact timing of 1.4+, spreading implied probabilities across early-to-late October dates with no dominant outcome. Key near-term catalysts include potential earnings commentary or internal benchmark disclosures that could clarify the next release window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPróximo Muse Spark Model (1.4+) lançado em...?
Próximo Muse Spark Model (1.4+) lançado em...?
28 de outubro 25%
6 de outubro 25%
19 de outubro 25%
14 de outubro 25%
NOVO
NOVO
1 out 2026
Em ou antes de 1º de outubro
16%
2 de outubro
13%
3 de outubro
24%
4 de outubro
23%
5 de outubro
13%
6 de outubro
25%
7 de outubro
25%
8 de outubro
24%
9 de outubro
10%
10 de outubro
23%
11 de outubro
24%
12 de outubro
24%
13 de outubro
14%
14 de outubro
25%
15 de outubro
9%
16 de outubro
13%
17 de outubro
8%
18 de outubro
8%
19 de outubro
25%
20 de outubro
8%
21 de outubro
24%
22 de outubro
14%
23 de outubro
12%
24 de outubro
14%
25 de outubro
24%
26 de outubro
24%
27 de outubro
13%
28 de outubro
25%
29 de outubro
24%
30 de outubro
14%
31 de outubro
25%
Nenhum lançamento até 31 de outubro
8%
28 de outubro 25%
6 de outubro 25%
19 de outubro 25%
14 de outubro 25%
NOVO
NOVO
1 out 2026
Em ou antes de 1º de outubro
$24 Vol.
16%
2 de outubro
$24 Vol.
13%
3 de outubro
$24 Vol.
24%
4 de outubro
$24 Vol.
23%
5 de outubro
$24 Vol.
13%
6 de outubro
$24 Vol.
25%
7 de outubro
$24 Vol.
25%
8 de outubro
$24 Vol.
24%
9 de outubro
$29 Vol.
10%
10 de outubro
$24 Vol.
23%
11 de outubro
$24 Vol.
24%
12 de outubro
$24 Vol.
24%
13 de outubro
$24 Vol.
14%
14 de outubro
$24 Vol.
25%
15 de outubro
$24 Vol.
9%
16 de outubro
$24 Vol.
13%
17 de outubro
$24 Vol.
8%
18 de outubro
$24 Vol.
8%
19 de outubro
$24 Vol.
25%
20 de outubro
$24 Vol.
8%
21 de outubro
$24 Vol.
24%
22 de outubro
$24 Vol.
14%
23 de outubro
$24 Vol.
12%
24 de outubro
$24 Vol.
14%
25 de outubro
$24 Vol.
24%
26 de outubro
$24 Vol.
24%
27 de outubro
$24 Vol.
13%
28 de outubro
$24 Vol.
25%
29 de outubro
$24 Vol.
24%
30 de outubro
$24 Vol.
14%
31 de outubro
$32 Vol.
25%
Nenhum lançamento até 31 de outubro
$24 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series from its Superintelligence Labs drives current trader sentiment, with Muse Spark 1.3 launching September 2, 2026—roughly four weeks after 1.2—via the Meta Model API and Muse Code. The update delivered Meta’s largest gains yet in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding benchmarks while using fewer tokens and tool calls, prompting CEO Mark Zuckerberg to highlight “frontier performance” and tease both a larger codenamed Watermelon model and open-weights releases. This monthly-scale cadence, combined with competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic on multimodal reasoning and developer APIs, creates uncertainty around the exact timing of 1.4+, spreading implied probabilities across early-to-late October dates with no dominant outcome. Key near-term catalysts include potential earnings commentary or internal benchmark disclosures that could clarify the next release window.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
Volume
$787Data de Término
31 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series from its Superintelligence Labs drives current trader sentiment, with Muse Spark 1.3 launching September 2, 2026—roughly four weeks after 1.2—via the Meta Model API and Muse Code. The update delivered Meta’s largest gains yet in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding benchmarks while using fewer tokens and tool calls, prompting CEO Mark Zuckerberg to highlight “frontier performance” and tease both a larger codenamed Watermelon model and open-weights releases. This monthly-scale cadence, combined with competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic on multimodal reasoning and developer APIs, creates uncertainty around the exact timing of 1.4+, spreading implied probabilities across early-to-late October dates with no dominant outcome. Key near-term catalysts include potential earnings commentary or internal benchmark disclosures that could clarify the next release window.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$787Data de Término
31 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta’s rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series from its Superintelligence Labs drives current trader sentiment, with Muse Spark 1.3 launching September 2, 2026—roughly four weeks after 1.2—via the Meta Model API and Muse Code. The update delivered Meta’s largest gains yet in long-horizon agentic tasks and coding benchmarks while using fewer tokens and tool calls, prompting CEO Mark Zuckerberg to highlight “frontier performance” and tease both a larger codenamed Watermelon model and open-weights releases. This monthly-scale cadence, combined with competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic on multimodal reasoning and developer APIs, creates uncertainty around the exact timing of 1.4+, spreading implied probabilities across early-to-late October dates with no dominant outcome. Key near-term catalysts include potential earnings commentary or internal benchmark disclosures that could clarify the next release window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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