OpenAI's confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and CEO Sam Altman's reported insistence on a $1 trillion-plus debut valuation—explicitly rejecting lower pricing for a potential late-2026 listing—anchor trader sentiment around elevated closing market caps. Recent revenue acceleration to a $40 billion-plus annualized run rate by August 2026, alongside the August $7 billion employee tender that reaffirmed the $852 billion March 2026 private mark, supports market-implied odds favoring a 1.5T+ outcome at 48.3% by implying substantial public-market multiples on AI growth. The 17.2% probability assigned to no IPO by December 31, 2027, reflects CFO Sarah Friar's internal signals of a 2027 timeline and caution from SpaceX's post-IPO volatility, while the combined 30.6% across the 1T–1.5T buckets captures realistic scenarios around current private benchmarks and infrastructure-driven losses.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1,5T+ 48.2%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027 17.0%
1T–1,25T 16.1%
1,25T–1,5T 15%
$159,165 Vol.
$159,165 Vol.
30 dez 2027
<500B
<1%
500–750B
1%
750B–1T
6%
1T–1,25T
16%
1,25T–1,5T
15%
1,5T+
48%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027
17%
1,5T+ 48.2%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027 17.0%
1T–1,25T 16.1%
1,25T–1,5T 15%
$159,165 Vol.
$159,165 Vol.
30 dez 2027
<500B
$11,921 Vol.
<1%
500–750B
$16,478 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$22,098 Vol.
6%
1T–1,25T
$21,710 Vol.
16%
1,25T–1,5T
$12,928 Vol.
15%
1,5T+
$40,066 Vol.
48%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027
$33,965 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI's confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and CEO Sam Altman's reported insistence on a $1 trillion-plus debut valuation—explicitly rejecting lower pricing for a potential late-2026 listing—anchor trader sentiment around elevated closing market caps. Recent revenue acceleration to a $40 billion-plus annualized run rate by August 2026, alongside the August $7 billion employee tender that reaffirmed the $852 billion March 2026 private mark, supports market-implied odds favoring a 1.5T+ outcome at 48.3% by implying substantial public-market multiples on AI growth. The 17.2% probability assigned to no IPO by December 31, 2027, reflects CFO Sarah Friar's internal signals of a 2027 timeline and caution from SpaceX's post-IPO volatility, while the combined 30.6% across the 1T–1.5T buckets captures realistic scenarios around current private benchmarks and infrastructure-driven losses.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$159,165Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI's confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and CEO Sam Altman's reported insistence on a $1 trillion-plus debut valuation—explicitly rejecting lower pricing for a potential late-2026 listing—anchor trader sentiment around elevated closing market caps. Recent revenue acceleration to a $40 billion-plus annualized run rate by August 2026, alongside the August $7 billion employee tender that reaffirmed the $852 billion March 2026 private mark, supports market-implied odds favoring a 1.5T+ outcome at 48.3% by implying substantial public-market multiples on AI growth. The 17.2% probability assigned to no IPO by December 31, 2027, reflects CFO Sarah Friar's internal signals of a 2027 timeline and caution from SpaceX's post-IPO volatility, while the combined 30.6% across the 1T–1.5T buckets captures realistic scenarios around current private benchmarks and infrastructure-driven losses.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$159,165Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI's confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and CEO Sam Altman's reported insistence on a $1 trillion-plus debut valuation—explicitly rejecting lower pricing for a potential late-2026 listing—anchor trader sentiment around elevated closing market caps. Recent revenue acceleration to a $40 billion-plus annualized run rate by August 2026, alongside the August $7 billion employee tender that reaffirmed the $852 billion March 2026 private mark, supports market-implied odds favoring a 1.5T+ outcome at 48.3% by implying substantial public-market multiples on AI growth. The 17.2% probability assigned to no IPO by December 31, 2027, reflects CFO Sarah Friar's internal signals of a 2027 timeline and caution from SpaceX's post-IPO volatility, while the combined 30.6% across the 1T–1.5T buckets captures realistic scenarios around current private benchmarks and infrastructure-driven losses.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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