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Tecnologia·Big Tech

Capital de mercado de fechamento de IPO da OpenAI

icon for Capital de mercado de fechamento de IPO da OpenAI
Tecnologia·Big Tech

Capital de mercado de fechamento de IPO da OpenAI

dez 31

dez 31, 2027

dez 31

dez 31, 2027

Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2026 45%

1T–1,25T 14.9%

1,5T+ 14.0%

750B–1T 8.6%

Polymarket

$1,856,027 Vol.

Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2026 45%

1T–1,25T 14.9%

1,5T+ 14.0%

750B–1T 8.6%

Polymarket

$1,856,027 Vol.

<500B

$289,813 Vol.

<1%

500–750B

$160,780 Vol.

2%

750B–1T

$165,700 Vol.

9%

1T–1,25T

$206,623 Vol.

15%

1,25T–1,5T

$515,665 Vol.

6%

1,5T+

$138,126 Vol.

14%

Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2026

$379,320 Vol.

45%

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.**OpenAI’s recent confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on June 8, 2026, is the primary catalyst shaping market-implied odds.** Traders assign a 53.5% probability to no IPO by year-end 2026 because the company stated it “has not decided on timing yet” and prefers remaining private for certain initiatives, consistent with typical 60- to 90-day SEC review plus roadshow timelines that could push listing into 2027. The 21.1% probability on a $1T–1.25T close reflects OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 round and underwriter targets near $1 trillion, tempered by ongoing heavy losses and regulatory scrutiny. Competitive AI IPO activity, including Anthropic’s filing, and strong investor demand for large language model leaders support the smaller 13.9% chance of $1.5T+, while lower buckets capture downside risk from execution delays or valuation compression.

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,856,027
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.**OpenAI’s recent confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on June 8, 2026, is the primary catalyst shaping market-implied odds.** Traders assign a 53.5% probability to no IPO by year-end 2026 because the company stated it “has not decided on timing yet” and prefers remaining private for certain initiatives, consistent with typical 60- to 90-day SEC review plus roadshow timelines that could push listing into 2027. The 21.1% probability on a $1T–1.25T close reflects OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 round and underwriter targets near $1 trillion, tempered by ongoing heavy losses and regulatory scrutiny. Competitive AI IPO activity, including Anthropic’s filing, and strong investor demand for large language model leaders support the smaller 13.9% chance of $1.5T+, while lower buckets capture downside risk from execution delays or valuation compression.

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,856,027
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Capital de mercado de fechamento de IPO da OpenAI" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2026" at 45%, followed by "1T–1,25T" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Capital de mercado de fechamento de IPO da OpenAI" has generated $1.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Capital de mercado de fechamento de IPO da OpenAI," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Capital de mercado de fechamento de IPO da OpenAI" is "Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2026" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1T–1,25T" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Capital de mercado de fechamento de IPO da OpenAI" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.