Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab production, now underway at Giga Texas with pilot builds and testing in 2026, anchors the 91.5% market-implied odds against Robovan orders opening before 2027. The larger autonomous van remains a 2024 concept without confirmed manufacturing plans, supply-chain milestones, or regulatory approvals for unsupervised full self-driving operation, consistent with Tesla's pattern of sequencing robotaxi deployment ahead of higher-capacity vehicles. Recent commentary points to 2028 as the earliest realistic window. Credible developments such as accelerated Robovan prototypes, major state-level autonomy certifications, or explicit order timelines could shift sentiment, though current resource allocation and historical schedule slippage make near-term movement improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Tesla abrirá pedidos para o Robovan antes de 2027?
A Tesla abrirá pedidos para o Robovan antes de 2027?
Sim
9% chance
$31,918 Vol.
$31,918 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
9% chance
$31,918 Vol.
$31,918 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab production, now underway at Giga Texas with pilot builds and testing in 2026, anchors the 91.5% market-implied odds against Robovan orders opening before 2027. The larger autonomous van remains a 2024 concept without confirmed manufacturing plans, supply-chain milestones, or regulatory approvals for unsupervised full self-driving operation, consistent with Tesla's pattern of sequencing robotaxi deployment ahead of higher-capacity vehicles. Recent commentary points to 2028 as the earliest realistic window. Credible developments such as accelerated Robovan prototypes, major state-level autonomy certifications, or explicit order timelines could shift sentiment, though current resource allocation and historical schedule slippage make near-term movement improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$31,918Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab production, now underway at Giga Texas with pilot builds and testing in 2026, anchors the 91.5% market-implied odds against Robovan orders opening before 2027. The larger autonomous van remains a 2024 concept without confirmed manufacturing plans, supply-chain milestones, or regulatory approvals for unsupervised full self-driving operation, consistent with Tesla's pattern of sequencing robotaxi deployment ahead of higher-capacity vehicles. Recent commentary points to 2028 as the earliest realistic window. Credible developments such as accelerated Robovan prototypes, major state-level autonomy certifications, or explicit order timelines could shift sentiment, though current resource allocation and historical schedule slippage make near-term movement improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,918Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab production, now underway at Giga Texas with pilot builds and testing in 2026, anchors the 91.5% market-implied odds against Robovan orders opening before 2027. The larger autonomous van remains a 2024 concept without confirmed manufacturing plans, supply-chain milestones, or regulatory approvals for unsupervised full self-driving operation, consistent with Tesla's pattern of sequencing robotaxi deployment ahead of higher-capacity vehicles. Recent commentary points to 2028 as the earliest realistic window. Credible developments such as accelerated Robovan prototypes, major state-level autonomy certifications, or explicit order timelines could shift sentiment, though current resource allocation and historical schedule slippage make near-term movement improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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