Microsoft’s current market capitalization near $3.68 trillion reflects robust recent performance, including a record single-day gain of roughly $450 billion following July 2026 earnings that highlighted Azure revenue expansion above 38% and Microsoft Cloud surpassing $50 billion quarterly. With roughly four months remaining until year-end resolution, trader-implied odds clustered across brackets from $2.50–5.00 trillion underscore uncertainty over whether AI-driven productivity gains and margin expansion can offset elevated capital expenditures and valuation multiples. Key swing factors include sustained Azure growth trajectories, Copilot monetization progress, and broader equity-market risk appetite relative to Treasury yields.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado<US$ 2,50T 0
US$2,50–US$3,00T 0
US$ 3,00–3,50 trilhões 0
US$ 3,50–4,00 trilhões 0
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
<US$ 2,50T
-
US$2,50–US$3,00T
-
US$ 3,00–3,50 trilhões
-
US$ 3,50–4,00 trilhões
-
US$ 4,00–US$ 4,50T
-
US$ 4,50-5,00T
-
US$ 5,00T+
-
<US$ 2,50T 0
US$2,50–US$3,00T 0
US$ 3,00–3,50 trilhões 0
US$ 3,50–4,00 trilhões 0
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
<US$ 2,50T
$0 Vol.
-
US$2,50–US$3,00T
$0 Vol.
-
US$ 3,00–3,50 trilhões
$0 Vol.
-
US$ 3,50–4,00 trilhões
$0 Vol.
-
US$ 4,00–US$ 4,50T
$0 Vol.
-
US$ 4,50-5,00T
$0 Vol.
-
US$ 5,00T+
$0 Vol.
-
This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Microsoft’s current market capitalization near $3.68 trillion reflects robust recent performance, including a record single-day gain of roughly $450 billion following July 2026 earnings that highlighted Azure revenue expansion above 38% and Microsoft Cloud surpassing $50 billion quarterly. With roughly four months remaining until year-end resolution, trader-implied odds clustered across brackets from $2.50–5.00 trillion underscore uncertainty over whether AI-driven productivity gains and margin expansion can offset elevated capital expenditures and valuation multiples. Key swing factors include sustained Azure growth trajectories, Copilot monetization progress, and broader equity-market risk appetite relative to Treasury yields.
This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 5, 2026, 7:49 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 5, 2026, 7:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Microsoft’s current market capitalization near $3.68 trillion reflects robust recent performance, including a record single-day gain of roughly $450 billion following July 2026 earnings that highlighted Azure revenue expansion above 38% and Microsoft Cloud surpassing $50 billion quarterly. With roughly four months remaining until year-end resolution, trader-implied odds clustered across brackets from $2.50–5.00 trillion underscore uncertainty over whether AI-driven productivity gains and margin expansion can offset elevated capital expenditures and valuation multiples. Key swing factors include sustained Azure growth trajectories, Copilot monetization progress, and broader equity-market risk appetite relative to Treasury yields.
This market will resolve according to Microsoft's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$0Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 5, 2026, 7:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Microsoft’s current market capitalization near $3.68 trillion reflects robust recent performance, including a record single-day gain of roughly $450 billion following July 2026 earnings that highlighted Azure revenue expansion above 38% and Microsoft Cloud surpassing $50 billion quarterly. With roughly four months remaining until year-end resolution, trader-implied odds clustered across brackets from $2.50–5.00 trillion underscore uncertainty over whether AI-driven productivity gains and margin expansion can offset elevated capital expenditures and valuation multiples. Key swing factors include sustained Azure growth trajectories, Copilot monetization progress, and broader equity-market risk appetite relative to Treasury yields.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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