Ongoing antitrust litigation from a coalition of states has emerged as the dominant factor behind the 76.8% implied probability against closing by December 2026. After shareholder approval in April and U.S. Department of Justice clearance in June, a federal judge issued a temporary restraining order in July, prompting Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery to formally pause the $111 billion transaction and extend the outside closing date to June 2027. This delay allows courts to resolve competition concerns over combined film studios, streaming services, and news networks. Key upcoming catalysts include further rulings on the injunction and any settlement talks, which could either clear the path or prolong uncertainty well into next year.