**Ongoing antitrust litigation from a coalition of 12 states has created the primary barrier to closing the Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery deal by December 31, 2026.** The $110+ billion merger, announced in late February 2026 and approved by shareholders in April, received clearance from the DOJ in June along with approvals from the EU and China. However, state lawsuits triggered a temporary restraining order in July that blocks completion while courts consider a preliminary injunction. On July 24, the companies formally agreed to pause the transaction and extend the outside closing date to June 1, 2027, to accommodate further regulatory reviews and litigation—explicitly signaling that resolution before year-end is improbable. Traders have priced this uncertainty into the 76.8% “No” odds, reflecting the extended timeline, court schedule, and risk of an injunction or required divestitures. Key near-term catalysts include the August 7, 2026, hearing on the preliminary injunction and any subsequent rulings or settlement developments that could either accelerate or further delay closing.