Trader consensus at 92% for no major VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the extreme rarity of such events, which occur on average only once or twice per century based on Holocene records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Through mid-September, ongoing activity at volcanoes including Kīlauea, Semeru, Merapi, and Anak Krakatau has remained at VEI 1–4 levels, with no caldera systems exhibiting the prolonged seismic swarms, ground deformation, or gas flux spikes that typically precede Plinian-scale eruptions. Official monitoring by USGS, PHIVOLCS, and PVMBG shows background conditions at most high-risk sites. A realistic shift could occur only if a currently quiet stratovolcano or caldera develops rapid unrest in the final months, though such escalation usually requires observable precursors well in advance of a VEI 6 threshold.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoGrande erupção vulcânica (vei ≥6) em 2026?
Grande erupção vulcânica (vei ≥6) em 2026?
Sim
8% chance
$146,530 Vol.
$146,530 Vol.
30 mar 2027
Sim
8% chance
$146,530 Vol.
$146,530 Vol.
30 mar 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus at 92% for no major VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the extreme rarity of such events, which occur on average only once or twice per century based on Holocene records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Through mid-September, ongoing activity at volcanoes including Kīlauea, Semeru, Merapi, and Anak Krakatau has remained at VEI 1–4 levels, with no caldera systems exhibiting the prolonged seismic swarms, ground deformation, or gas flux spikes that typically precede Plinian-scale eruptions. Official monitoring by USGS, PHIVOLCS, and PVMBG shows background conditions at most high-risk sites. A realistic shift could occur only if a currently quiet stratovolcano or caldera develops rapid unrest in the final months, though such escalation usually requires observable precursors well in advance of a VEI 6 threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$146,530Data de Término
31 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus at 92% for no major VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the extreme rarity of such events, which occur on average only once or twice per century based on Holocene records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Through mid-September, ongoing activity at volcanoes including Kīlauea, Semeru, Merapi, and Anak Krakatau has remained at VEI 1–4 levels, with no caldera systems exhibiting the prolonged seismic swarms, ground deformation, or gas flux spikes that typically precede Plinian-scale eruptions. Official monitoring by USGS, PHIVOLCS, and PVMBG shows background conditions at most high-risk sites. A realistic shift could occur only if a currently quiet stratovolcano or caldera develops rapid unrest in the final months, though such escalation usually requires observable precursors well in advance of a VEI 6 threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$146,530Data de Término
31 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus at 92% for no major VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the extreme rarity of such events, which occur on average only once or twice per century based on Holocene records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Through mid-September, ongoing activity at volcanoes including Kīlauea, Semeru, Merapi, and Anak Krakatau has remained at VEI 1–4 levels, with no caldera systems exhibiting the prolonged seismic swarms, ground deformation, or gas flux spikes that typically precede Plinian-scale eruptions. Official monitoring by USGS, PHIVOLCS, and PVMBG shows background conditions at most high-risk sites. A realistic shift could occur only if a currently quiet stratovolcano or caldera develops rapid unrest in the final months, though such escalation usually requires observable precursors well in advance of a VEI 6 threshold.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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