Recent explosive activity at Anak Krakatau, with ash plumes reaching 15 km and stratospheric sulfur dioxide injections in early September, has narrowed the market-implied odds between zero and one VEI ≥4 event for 2026. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through March show 47 eruptions, mostly VEI ≤3 or effusive at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru, consistent with the historical average of roughly 0.5–1 such events annually. Ongoing unrest at Indonesian volcanoes and submarine systems introduces uncertainty, as VEI classification depends on final ejecta volume and plume height data from agencies like USGS and GVP. Traders weigh the potential for additional intensification before year-end against the current quiet baseline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantas grandes erupções vulcânicas (vei ≥4) em 2026?
Quantas grandes erupções vulcânicas (vei ≥4) em 2026?
1 51%
0 43%
3 6.9%
2 5.9%
$1,164,263 Vol.
$1,164,263 Vol.
31 dez 2026
0
43%
1
51%
2
6%
3
7%
4
1%
5+
1%
1 51%
0 43%
3 6.9%
2 5.9%
$1,164,263 Vol.
$1,164,263 Vol.
31 dez 2026
0
$499,859 Vol.
43%
1
$274,794 Vol.
51%
2
$45,997 Vol.
6%
3
$32,103 Vol.
7%
4
$35,623 Vol.
1%
5+
$275,888 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Recent explosive activity at Anak Krakatau, with ash plumes reaching 15 km and stratospheric sulfur dioxide injections in early September, has narrowed the market-implied odds between zero and one VEI ≥4 event for 2026. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through March show 47 eruptions, mostly VEI ≤3 or effusive at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru, consistent with the historical average of roughly 0.5–1 such events annually. Ongoing unrest at Indonesian volcanoes and submarine systems introduces uncertainty, as VEI classification depends on final ejecta volume and plume height data from agencies like USGS and GVP. Traders weigh the potential for additional intensification before year-end against the current quiet baseline.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,164,263Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Recent explosive activity at Anak Krakatau, with ash plumes reaching 15 km and stratospheric sulfur dioxide injections in early September, has narrowed the market-implied odds between zero and one VEI ≥4 event for 2026. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through March show 47 eruptions, mostly VEI ≤3 or effusive at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru, consistent with the historical average of roughly 0.5–1 such events annually. Ongoing unrest at Indonesian volcanoes and submarine systems introduces uncertainty, as VEI classification depends on final ejecta volume and plume height data from agencies like USGS and GVP. Traders weigh the potential for additional intensification before year-end against the current quiet baseline.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,164,263Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent explosive activity at Anak Krakatau, with ash plumes reaching 15 km and stratospheric sulfur dioxide injections in early September, has narrowed the market-implied odds between zero and one VEI ≥4 event for 2026. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through March show 47 eruptions, mostly VEI ≤3 or effusive at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru, consistent with the historical average of roughly 0.5–1 such events annually. Ongoing unrest at Indonesian volcanoes and submarine systems introduces uncertainty, as VEI classification depends on final ejecta volume and plume height data from agencies like USGS and GVP. Traders weigh the potential for additional intensification before year-end against the current quiet baseline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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