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Clima E Ciência·Ciências

Desastre natural em 2026?

icon for Desastre natural em 2026?
Clima E Ciência·Ciências

Desastre natural em 2026?

Sim

26% chance
Polymarket

$221,615 Vol.

Sim

26% chance
Polymarket

$221,615 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf Traders assign a 74.5% implied probability to no natural disaster in 2026 based on current observational data showing activity within normal historical ranges rather than elevated risk. Official monitoring from NOAA and the USGS through early June 2026 indicates typical seismic patterns and no major tropical systems or extreme weather events meeting likely resolution thresholds such as high-magnitude earthquakes or landfalling hurricanes. Climate indices including ENSO remain neutral, providing no strong signal for above-average activity in the second half of the year. Historical baselines show natural disasters occur annually, yet the market reflects trader consensus that specific criteria tied to intensity or impact have not been triggered and are unlikely to shift dramatically absent new model runs or confirmed events.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$221,615
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf Traders assign a 74.5% implied probability to no natural disaster in 2026 based on current observational data showing activity within normal historical ranges rather than elevated risk. Official monitoring from NOAA and the USGS through early June 2026 indicates typical seismic patterns and no major tropical systems or extreme weather events meeting likely resolution thresholds such as high-magnitude earthquakes or landfalling hurricanes. Climate indices including ENSO remain neutral, providing no strong signal for above-average activity in the second half of the year. Historical baselines show natural disasters occur annually, yet the market reflects trader consensus that specific criteria tied to intensity or impact have not been triggered and are unlikely to shift dramatically absent new model runs or confirmed events.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$221,615
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Desastre natural em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Desastre natural em 2026?" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Desastre natural em 2026?" has generated $221.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 31, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Desastre natural em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Desastre natural em 2026?" is "Desastre natural em 2026?" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Desastre natural em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.