**Traders assign a 72% implied probability to "Yes" on the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market because the specific triggers listed in the resolution criteria—such as a China invasion of Taiwan, full U.S. invasion of Iran or regime collapse there, Trump’s removal from office, Russia invading a NATO country, Bitcoin reaching $1 million or falling to $10,000, a Republican Senate supermajority, or major natural disasters like a 9.0 earthquake—remain unlikely through year-end.** Early 2026 already featured significant developments, including U.S. actions in Venezuela and strikes on Iran that killed its leader, yet these did not meet the precise thresholds for market resolution to “No.” With the 2026 midterms scheduled for November 3 and ongoing congressional primaries plus redistricting efforts underway, traders see limited near-term risk of the remaining listed catalysts materializing. The market’s pricing reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing that baseline continuity in U.S. leadership, geopolitics, and markets is the most probable path absent new escalations.