**Trader consensus at 82.5% Yes for “Nothing Ever Happens: 2026” reflects the continued absence of any resolution-triggering events through mid-September.** The market resolves Yes unless specific high-impact developments occur by year-end, including Trump leaving office, a China-Taiwan invasion, Xi Jinping’s removal, a U.S. ground invasion of Iran or the Iranian regime’s collapse, Bitcoin reaching $1 million or falling to $10,000, a Republican Senate supermajority, Russia invading a NATO country, or major natural disasters such as a 9.0+ earthquake or VEI-6 volcano. Ongoing U.S. strikes in the 2026 Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz tensions have remained limited, avoiding the listed escalation thresholds. Leadership stability in the U.S. and China, combined with the short remaining window before December 31, supports elevated odds for no qualifying paradigm shifts. Midterm elections in November introduce some uncertainty around Senate composition but are not viewed as likely to produce an immediate supermajority.