Traders assign a 74% probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because no qualifying escalations—such as new interstate conflicts, leader assassinations, or major regime-change operations—have occurred since the early-year U.S. actions in Venezuela and the February Iran strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. With the FIFA World Cup concluded and U.S. government funding disputes resolved, market positioning reflects expectations of continued containment in ongoing flashpoints, absence of NATO-Russia or China-Taiwan clashes, and no fresh military interventions through year-end. Scheduled events like the 2026 midterms and potential U.S.-China summits have so far produced no disruptive surprises capable of shifting the outcome under the market's resolution criteria.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNada Nunca Acontece: 2026
Nada Nunca Acontece: 2026
Sim
$701,992 Vol.
$701,992 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$701,992 Vol.
$701,992 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign a 74% probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because no qualifying escalations—such as new interstate conflicts, leader assassinations, or major regime-change operations—have occurred since the early-year U.S. actions in Venezuela and the February Iran strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. With the FIFA World Cup concluded and U.S. government funding disputes resolved, market positioning reflects expectations of continued containment in ongoing flashpoints, absence of NATO-Russia or China-Taiwan clashes, and no fresh military interventions through year-end. Scheduled events like the 2026 midterms and potential U.S.-China summits have so far produced no disruptive surprises capable of shifting the outcome under the market's resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Mercado Aberto: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$701,992Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign a 74% probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because no qualifying escalations—such as new interstate conflicts, leader assassinations, or major regime-change operations—have occurred since the early-year U.S. actions in Venezuela and the February Iran strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. With the FIFA World Cup concluded and U.S. government funding disputes resolved, market positioning reflects expectations of continued containment in ongoing flashpoints, absence of NATO-Russia or China-Taiwan clashes, and no fresh military interventions through year-end. Scheduled events like the 2026 midterms and potential U.S.-China summits have so far produced no disruptive surprises capable of shifting the outcome under the market's resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$701,992Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 74% probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because no qualifying escalations—such as new interstate conflicts, leader assassinations, or major regime-change operations—have occurred since the early-year U.S. actions in Venezuela and the February Iran strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. With the FIFA World Cup concluded and U.S. government funding disputes resolved, market positioning reflects expectations of continued containment in ongoing flashpoints, absence of NATO-Russia or China-Taiwan clashes, and no fresh military interventions through year-end. Scheduled events like the 2026 midterms and potential U.S.-China summits have so far produced no disruptive surprises capable of shifting the outcome under the market's resolution criteria.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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