Ongoing orbital monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA shows no known near-Earth asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt or greater energy through the remainder of 2026. Recent close approaches, including multiple objects passing within a few lunar distances in August, have all been confirmed safe misses with refined trajectories. Extensive cataloging of larger potentially hazardous asteroids combined with statistical rarity of undetected city-killer-scale events supports trader consensus favoring no major strike. Key upcoming catalysts include continued LSST survey operations and any new discoveries from ground-based networks that could alter impact probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoGrande impacto de meteoro (10kt+) em 2026?
Grande impacto de meteoro (10kt+) em 2026?
Sim
11% chance
$200,454 Vol.
$200,454 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
11% chance
$200,454 Vol.
$200,454 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing orbital monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA shows no known near-Earth asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt or greater energy through the remainder of 2026. Recent close approaches, including multiple objects passing within a few lunar distances in August, have all been confirmed safe misses with refined trajectories. Extensive cataloging of larger potentially hazardous asteroids combined with statistical rarity of undetected city-killer-scale events supports trader consensus favoring no major strike. Key upcoming catalysts include continued LSST survey operations and any new discoveries from ground-based networks that could alter impact probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$200,454Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing orbital monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA shows no known near-Earth asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt or greater energy through the remainder of 2026. Recent close approaches, including multiple objects passing within a few lunar distances in August, have all been confirmed safe misses with refined trajectories. Extensive cataloging of larger potentially hazardous asteroids combined with statistical rarity of undetected city-killer-scale events supports trader consensus favoring no major strike. Key upcoming catalysts include continued LSST survey operations and any new discoveries from ground-based networks that could alter impact probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$200,454Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing orbital monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA shows no known near-Earth asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt or greater energy through the remainder of 2026. Recent close approaches, including multiple objects passing within a few lunar distances in August, have all been confirmed safe misses with refined trajectories. Extensive cataloging of larger potentially hazardous asteroids combined with statistical rarity of undetected city-killer-scale events supports trader consensus favoring no major strike. Key upcoming catalysts include continued LSST survey operations and any new discoveries from ground-based networks that could alter impact probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions