The near-certain trader consensus against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems from the extreme rarity of these megathrust events, which USGS records show have occurred globally only five times since 1952. Average recurrence intervals run roughly one to three per century, consistent with long-term seismic catalogs and the absence of any 9.0+ quake since the 2011 Tohoku event. Short-term monitoring reveals no precursors or elevated activity along major subduction zones, while probabilistic models assign very low odds even across decades. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unexpected full-margin rupture in regions such as Cascadia or southern Chile, though current tectonic conditions and historical patterns make this highly improbable in the remaining timeframe.