NASA and ESA monitoring through the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and Sentry system has identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst or impact in 2026, underpinning the market’s 93.8% implied probability for no strike. Continuous optical and radar surveys have ruled out objects large enough to deliver that energy yield, aligning with the historical record of bolides at this scale occurring roughly once every few centuries. An observed increase in smaller fireball reports during early 2026 has remained below the threshold. Residual risk from undiscovered objects persists given survey completeness limits for sub-50-meter bodies, though ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end will further narrow any remaining uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 100kt em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 100kt em 2026?
Sim
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA and ESA monitoring through the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and Sentry system has identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst or impact in 2026, underpinning the market’s 93.8% implied probability for no strike. Continuous optical and radar surveys have ruled out objects large enough to deliver that energy yield, aligning with the historical record of bolides at this scale occurring roughly once every few centuries. An observed increase in smaller fireball reports during early 2026 has remained below the threshold. Residual risk from undiscovered objects persists given survey completeness limits for sub-50-meter bodies, though ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end will further narrow any remaining uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,238Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA and ESA monitoring through the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and Sentry system has identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst or impact in 2026, underpinning the market’s 93.8% implied probability for no strike. Continuous optical and radar surveys have ruled out objects large enough to deliver that energy yield, aligning with the historical record of bolides at this scale occurring roughly once every few centuries. An observed increase in smaller fireball reports during early 2026 has remained below the threshold. Residual risk from undiscovered objects persists given survey completeness limits for sub-50-meter bodies, though ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end will further narrow any remaining uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,238Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA and ESA monitoring through the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and Sentry system has identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst or impact in 2026, underpinning the market’s 93.8% implied probability for no strike. Continuous optical and radar surveys have ruled out objects large enough to deliver that energy yield, aligning with the historical record of bolides at this scale occurring roughly once every few centuries. An observed increase in smaller fireball reports during early 2026 has remained below the threshold. Residual risk from undiscovered objects persists given survey completeness limits for sub-50-meter bodies, though ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end will further narrow any remaining uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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