NASA’s Sentry impact monitoring system and ongoing observations of near-Earth objects show no cataloged asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst or ground impact through the end of 2026. Recent close approaches involve only meter- to decameter-scale bodies whose energies fall well below this threshold, consistent with the low historical frequency of such events. Trader consensus at 93.8% for “No” reflects this absence of detected threats plus refined orbital data that have repeatedly lowered earlier impact probabilities for objects like 2024 YR4. A realistic shift could occur only if an undetected ~10–20 m object is discovered on a direct path or if new observations revise an existing trajectory, though both remain statistically unlikely given current survey coverage.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 100kt em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 100kt em 2026?
Sim
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Sentry impact monitoring system and ongoing observations of near-Earth objects show no cataloged asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst or ground impact through the end of 2026. Recent close approaches involve only meter- to decameter-scale bodies whose energies fall well below this threshold, consistent with the low historical frequency of such events. Trader consensus at 93.8% for “No” reflects this absence of detected threats plus refined orbital data that have repeatedly lowered earlier impact probabilities for objects like 2024 YR4. A realistic shift could occur only if an undetected ~10–20 m object is discovered on a direct path or if new observations revise an existing trajectory, though both remain statistically unlikely given current survey coverage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,238Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Sentry impact monitoring system and ongoing observations of near-Earth objects show no cataloged asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst or ground impact through the end of 2026. Recent close approaches involve only meter- to decameter-scale bodies whose energies fall well below this threshold, consistent with the low historical frequency of such events. Trader consensus at 93.8% for “No” reflects this absence of detected threats plus refined orbital data that have repeatedly lowered earlier impact probabilities for objects like 2024 YR4. A realistic shift could occur only if an undetected ~10–20 m object is discovered on a direct path or if new observations revise an existing trajectory, though both remain statistically unlikely given current survey coverage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,238Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Sentry impact monitoring system and ongoing observations of near-Earth objects show no cataloged asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton airburst or ground impact through the end of 2026. Recent close approaches involve only meter- to decameter-scale bodies whose energies fall well below this threshold, consistent with the low historical frequency of such events. Trader consensus at 93.8% for “No” reflects this absence of detected threats plus refined orbital data that have repeatedly lowered earlier impact probabilities for objects like 2024 YR4. A realistic shift could occur only if an undetected ~10–20 m object is discovered on a direct path or if new observations revise an existing trajectory, though both remain statistically unlikely given current survey coverage.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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