Ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring via the Sentry system confirms no cataloged near-Earth objects pose impact risk through 2026 or beyond, with all known trajectories yielding zero probability for a 100-kiloton event. Comprehensive surveys have identified the vast majority of objects large enough to deliver this energy—roughly 20–50 meters in diameter—while recent close approaches have all passed safely. Historical impact rates for this size class average once every several centuries, reinforcing trader consensus behind the 93.9% “No” odds. An undetected small asteroid on a direct trajectory could theoretically alter outcomes before year-end, though short-term detection systems make such surprises improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 100kt em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 100kt em 2026?
Sim
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring via the Sentry system confirms no cataloged near-Earth objects pose impact risk through 2026 or beyond, with all known trajectories yielding zero probability for a 100-kiloton event. Comprehensive surveys have identified the vast majority of objects large enough to deliver this energy—roughly 20–50 meters in diameter—while recent close approaches have all passed safely. Historical impact rates for this size class average once every several centuries, reinforcing trader consensus behind the 93.9% “No” odds. An undetected small asteroid on a direct trajectory could theoretically alter outcomes before year-end, though short-term detection systems make such surprises improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,238Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring via the Sentry system confirms no cataloged near-Earth objects pose impact risk through 2026 or beyond, with all known trajectories yielding zero probability for a 100-kiloton event. Comprehensive surveys have identified the vast majority of objects large enough to deliver this energy—roughly 20–50 meters in diameter—while recent close approaches have all passed safely. Historical impact rates for this size class average once every several centuries, reinforcing trader consensus behind the 93.9% “No” odds. An undetected small asteroid on a direct trajectory could theoretically alter outcomes before year-end, though short-term detection systems make such surprises improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,238Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring via the Sentry system confirms no cataloged near-Earth objects pose impact risk through 2026 or beyond, with all known trajectories yielding zero probability for a 100-kiloton event. Comprehensive surveys have identified the vast majority of objects large enough to deliver this energy—roughly 20–50 meters in diameter—while recent close approaches have all passed safely. Historical impact rates for this size class average once every several centuries, reinforcing trader consensus behind the 93.9% “No” odds. An undetected small asteroid on a direct trajectory could theoretically alter outcomes before year-end, though short-term detection systems make such surprises improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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