NASA and ESA NEO surveys, including the Sentry Risk Table, show no known objects on collision trajectories capable of a 100-kiloton impact through 2026, supporting the 95.9% market-implied odds on “No.” Statistically, 100 kt events align with objects roughly 20–30 meters across that occur on average once every few decades, far below the frequency of smaller fireballs reported in 2026. Ongoing optical and radar tracking continues to refine orbits with negligible residual risk from undetected bodies. A late-year surprise remains possible only if a small, dark asteroid evades current surveys or a long-period comet arrives undetected, though both scenarios carry extremely low probability given existing coverage.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 100kt em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 100kt em 2026?
Sim
4% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
4% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA and ESA NEO surveys, including the Sentry Risk Table, show no known objects on collision trajectories capable of a 100-kiloton impact through 2026, supporting the 95.9% market-implied odds on “No.” Statistically, 100 kt events align with objects roughly 20–30 meters across that occur on average once every few decades, far below the frequency of smaller fireballs reported in 2026. Ongoing optical and radar tracking continues to refine orbits with negligible residual risk from undetected bodies. A late-year surprise remains possible only if a small, dark asteroid evades current surveys or a long-period comet arrives undetected, though both scenarios carry extremely low probability given existing coverage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,842Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA and ESA NEO surveys, including the Sentry Risk Table, show no known objects on collision trajectories capable of a 100-kiloton impact through 2026, supporting the 95.9% market-implied odds on “No.” Statistically, 100 kt events align with objects roughly 20–30 meters across that occur on average once every few decades, far below the frequency of smaller fireballs reported in 2026. Ongoing optical and radar tracking continues to refine orbits with negligible residual risk from undetected bodies. A late-year surprise remains possible only if a small, dark asteroid evades current surveys or a long-period comet arrives undetected, though both scenarios carry extremely low probability given existing coverage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,842Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA and ESA NEO surveys, including the Sentry Risk Table, show no known objects on collision trajectories capable of a 100-kiloton impact through 2026, supporting the 95.9% market-implied odds on “No.” Statistically, 100 kt events align with objects roughly 20–30 meters across that occur on average once every few decades, far below the frequency of smaller fireballs reported in 2026. Ongoing optical and radar tracking continues to refine orbits with negligible residual risk from undetected bodies. A late-year surprise remains possible only if a small, dark asteroid evades current surveys or a long-period comet arrives undetected, though both scenarios carry extremely low probability given existing coverage.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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