Mount Etna's recent eruptive phases, including the August 2026 summit activity at Voragine crater with Strombolian explosions, lava fountains, ash emissions, and multiple flank vents feeding flows into Valle del Bove, along with ongoing weak ash plumes observed in early September, form the main driver behind the 55% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ event this year. INGV monitoring shows elevated volcanic tremor and thermal anomalies consistent with moderate explosive output, aligning with the volcano's pattern of frequent VEI 2 eruptions (24 recorded since 1955). Historical data indicate Etna produces such events on average every few years amid near-continuous summit or flank activity, though model consensus on exact ejecta volumes and intensity remains variable. Traders appear focused on whether current or upcoming episodes will meet the VEI threshold before year-end, with INGV bulletins and VAAC advisories providing key resolution signals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
0% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
0% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's recent eruptive phases, including the August 2026 summit activity at Voragine crater with Strombolian explosions, lava fountains, ash emissions, and multiple flank vents feeding flows into Valle del Bove, along with ongoing weak ash plumes observed in early September, form the main driver behind the 55% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ event this year. INGV monitoring shows elevated volcanic tremor and thermal anomalies consistent with moderate explosive output, aligning with the volcano's pattern of frequent VEI 2 eruptions (24 recorded since 1955). Historical data indicate Etna produces such events on average every few years amid near-continuous summit or flank activity, though model consensus on exact ejecta volumes and intensity remains variable. Traders appear focused on whether current or upcoming episodes will meet the VEI threshold before year-end, with INGV bulletins and VAAC advisories providing key resolution signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$21Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's recent eruptive phases, including the August 2026 summit activity at Voragine crater with Strombolian explosions, lava fountains, ash emissions, and multiple flank vents feeding flows into Valle del Bove, along with ongoing weak ash plumes observed in early September, form the main driver behind the 55% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ event this year. INGV monitoring shows elevated volcanic tremor and thermal anomalies consistent with moderate explosive output, aligning with the volcano's pattern of frequent VEI 2 eruptions (24 recorded since 1955). Historical data indicate Etna produces such events on average every few years amid near-continuous summit or flank activity, though model consensus on exact ejecta volumes and intensity remains variable. Traders appear focused on whether current or upcoming episodes will meet the VEI threshold before year-end, with INGV bulletins and VAAC advisories providing key resolution signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volume
$21Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna's recent eruptive phases, including the August 2026 summit activity at Voragine crater with Strombolian explosions, lava fountains, ash emissions, and multiple flank vents feeding flows into Valle del Bove, along with ongoing weak ash plumes observed in early September, form the main driver behind the 55% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ event this year. INGV monitoring shows elevated volcanic tremor and thermal anomalies consistent with moderate explosive output, aligning with the volcano's pattern of frequent VEI 2 eruptions (24 recorded since 1955). Historical data indicate Etna produces such events on average every few years amid near-continuous summit or flank activity, though model consensus on exact ejecta volumes and intensity remains variable. Traders appear focused on whether current or upcoming episodes will meet the VEI threshold before year-end, with INGV bulletins and VAAC advisories providing key resolution signals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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