**Current forecasts from sources like WeatherBug, Worldmeteo, and others point to a high near 89°F (32°C) on September 2 in Miami, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely amid high humidity.** This typical late-summer pattern, driven by warm Gulf and Atlantic sea surface temperatures fueling moisture and instability, supports the market's leading outcomes of 90-91°F (45% implied probability) and 92-93°F (32%). Afternoon convection often limits peak heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling, keeping highs from exceeding the low 90s while preventing cooler readings unless an unexpected front arrives. Recent model runs show consistency around these values, with heat indices potentially reaching 105–107°F due to dew points in the upper 70s. The 88-89°F bin (15.5%) captures downside risks from earlier or heavier storms, while lower probabilities for 94°F+ reflect the absence of strong high-pressure subsidence or clear-sky conditions. Traders appear to price in the narrow forecast range and inherent model uncertainty in tropical moisture patterns, with official National Weather Service updates likely to refine timing and intensity in the coming days.