Hong Kong's September climatological mean precipitation stands at 321 mm, yet market-implied odds heavily favor totals below 275 mm. This positioning reflects the Hong Kong Observatory's August 31 forecast for normal-to-below-normal rainfall during the month, driven by the seasonal shift toward drier autumn patterns under a strengthening high-pressure ridge. A rapidly intensifying El Niño event—already exceeding +2.4 °C in the Niño 3.4 region and projected to become very strong—further suppresses western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity and moisture transport into the South China Sea. Early-month showers from systems like Tropical Cyclone Saudel add limited accumulation, but model consensus points to reduced overall totals amid the broader drying influence. Key upcoming catalysts include updated HKO outlooks and any late-September cyclone tracks, which retain typical forecast uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPrecipitação em Hong Kong em setembro?
Precipitação em Hong Kong em setembro?
<275mm 56%
275-300mm 16%
325-350mm 9%
300-325mm 8%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
<275mm
56%
275-300mm
16%
300-325mm
8%
325-350mm
9%
350-375mm
7%
375-400mm
6%
400-450mm
5%
450-500mm
4%
500-550mm
5%
550mm+
4%
<275mm 56%
275-300mm 16%
325-350mm 9%
300-325mm 8%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
<275mm
$2,152 Vol.
56%
275-300mm
$128 Vol.
16%
300-325mm
$128 Vol.
8%
325-350mm
$128 Vol.
9%
350-375mm
$125 Vol.
7%
375-400mm
$125 Vol.
6%
400-450mm
$150 Vol.
5%
450-500mm
$168 Vol.
4%
500-550mm
$149 Vol.
5%
550mm+
$150 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's September climatological mean precipitation stands at 321 mm, yet market-implied odds heavily favor totals below 275 mm. This positioning reflects the Hong Kong Observatory's August 31 forecast for normal-to-below-normal rainfall during the month, driven by the seasonal shift toward drier autumn patterns under a strengthening high-pressure ridge. A rapidly intensifying El Niño event—already exceeding +2.4 °C in the Niño 3.4 region and projected to become very strong—further suppresses western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity and moisture transport into the South China Sea. Early-month showers from systems like Tropical Cyclone Saudel add limited accumulation, but model consensus points to reduced overall totals amid the broader drying influence. Key upcoming catalysts include updated HKO outlooks and any late-September cyclone tracks, which retain typical forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
Volume
$3,401Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's September climatological mean precipitation stands at 321 mm, yet market-implied odds heavily favor totals below 275 mm. This positioning reflects the Hong Kong Observatory's August 31 forecast for normal-to-below-normal rainfall during the month, driven by the seasonal shift toward drier autumn patterns under a strengthening high-pressure ridge. A rapidly intensifying El Niño event—already exceeding +2.4 °C in the Niño 3.4 region and projected to become very strong—further suppresses western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity and moisture transport into the South China Sea. Early-month showers from systems like Tropical Cyclone Saudel add limited accumulation, but model consensus points to reduced overall totals amid the broader drying influence. Key upcoming catalysts include updated HKO outlooks and any late-September cyclone tracks, which retain typical forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,401Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong's September climatological mean precipitation stands at 321 mm, yet market-implied odds heavily favor totals below 275 mm. This positioning reflects the Hong Kong Observatory's August 31 forecast for normal-to-below-normal rainfall during the month, driven by the seasonal shift toward drier autumn patterns under a strengthening high-pressure ridge. A rapidly intensifying El Niño event—already exceeding +2.4 °C in the Niño 3.4 region and projected to become very strong—further suppresses western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity and moisture transport into the South China Sea. Early-month showers from systems like Tropical Cyclone Saudel add limited accumulation, but model consensus points to reduced overall totals amid the broader drying influence. Key upcoming catalysts include updated HKO outlooks and any late-September cyclone tracks, which retain typical forecast uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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