Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Seattle's highest temperature reaching 50°F or higher on April 18, with 98.9% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts projecting daytime highs of 54–65°F amid a developing high-pressure ridge over the Pacific Northwest. This aligns with NOAA's spring 2026 outlook for above-normal temperatures in western Washington, supported by ensemble model consensus from GFS and ECMWF showing persistent warm advection and minimal precipitation risk. Seattle's April climatology rarely sees highs below 50°F (less than 10% historical frequency), reinforcing the positioning. Realistic challenges include an unexpected influx of cool marine air or stalled frontal boundary suppressing peaks by 5–10°F, though current soundings and 48-hour trend indicate low likelihood; monitor afternoon model updates for refinements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Seattle on April 18?
Highest temperature in Seattle on April 18?
50°F or higher 99.0%
34-35°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
42-43°F <1%
$11,510 Vol.
$11,510 Vol.
31°F or below
<1%
32-33°F
<1%
34-35°F
<1%
36-37°F
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50°F or higher
99%
50°F or higher 99.0%
34-35°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
42-43°F <1%
$11,510 Vol.
$11,510 Vol.
31°F or below
<1%
32-33°F
<1%
34-35°F
<1%
36-37°F
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50°F or higher
99%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 16, 2026, 12:40 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Seattle's highest temperature reaching 50°F or higher on April 18, with 98.9% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts projecting daytime highs of 54–65°F amid a developing high-pressure ridge over the Pacific Northwest. This aligns with NOAA's spring 2026 outlook for above-normal temperatures in western Washington, supported by ensemble model consensus from GFS and ECMWF showing persistent warm advection and minimal precipitation risk. Seattle's April climatology rarely sees highs below 50°F (less than 10% historical frequency), reinforcing the positioning. Realistic challenges include an unexpected influx of cool marine air or stalled frontal boundary suppressing peaks by 5–10°F, though current soundings and 48-hour trend indicate low likelihood; monitor afternoon model updates for refinements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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