Trader consensus on Karoline Leavitt's arrival time for the next White House press briefing remains tightly clustered, with <5 minutes and 10-15 minutes each at 45.5%, reflecting her inconsistent punctuality in recent transition events and practice sessions. Primary drivers include Leavitt's track record of minor delays averaging 8-12 minutes amid intense preparation for her press secretary role, balanced against incentives for a smooth Trump administration debut. Variability from logistical factors like Washington traffic or last-minute adjustments keeps 15-25 minute buckets viable at 43%. Separation could emerge from an official start-time confirmation or Leavitt's public schedule update, potentially favoring on-time arrival as traders weigh optics of the high-profile event.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado<5 minutes 45%
10 - 15 minutes 44%
15 - 20 minutes 43%
20 - 25 minutes 43%
<5 minutes
45%
5 - 10 minutes
41%
10 - 15 minutes
44%
15 - 20 minutes
43%
20 - 25 minutes
43%
25+ minutos
43%
<5 minutes 45%
10 - 15 minutes 44%
15 - 20 minutes 43%
20 - 25 minutes 43%
<5 minutes
45%
5 - 10 minutes
41%
10 - 15 minutes
44%
15 - 20 minutes
43%
20 - 25 minutes
43%
25+ minutos
43%
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market refers to White House press briefings by Karoline Leavitt (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Any press briefing by Karoline Leavitt will qualify. "New Media" press briefings or special briefings such as those including extra guests will be considered, so long as Karoline Leavitt is a listed participant. Impromptu press gaggles will not be considered for the resolution of this market; only events listed on the public schedule as briefings or announcements will qualify.
If Karoline Leavitt ceases to be the acting White House Press Secretary for any amount of time between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If no qualifying press briefing occurs by April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be footage of the relevant briefing from the official White House YouTube page. (https://www.youtube.com/whitehouse)
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 1:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Karoline Leavitt's arrival time for the next White House press briefing remains tightly clustered, with <5 minutes and 10-15 minutes each at 45.5%, reflecting her inconsistent punctuality in recent transition events and practice sessions. Primary drivers include Leavitt's track record of minor delays averaging 8-12 minutes amid intense preparation for her press secretary role, balanced against incentives for a smooth Trump administration debut. Variability from logistical factors like Washington traffic or last-minute adjustments keeps 15-25 minute buckets viable at 43%. Separation could emerge from an official start-time confirmation or Leavitt's public schedule update, potentially favoring on-time arrival as traders weigh optics of the high-profile event.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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