Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place the overnight minimum in central Paris near 17–19 °C for July 17, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing under a lingering warm, stable airmass. Recent heatwave conditions have elevated baseline temperatures, while the urban heat-island effect consistently adds 1–2 °C to observed lows relative to model grid points. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 18 °C because that outcome aligns with the median of latest high-resolution runs, yet the tight clustering of probabilities across 15–22 °C brackets reflects genuine model divergence on whether clear skies or increased low-level moisture will allow further radiational cooling. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Paris no dia 17 de julho?
Temperatura mais baixa em Paris no dia 17 de julho?
18°C 100.0%
15°C ou menos <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$14,100 Vol.
$14,100 Vol.
17 jul 2026
15°C ou menos
Não
16°C
Não
17°C
Não
18°C
Sim
19°C
Não
20°C
Não
21°C
Não
22°C
Não
23°C
Não
24°C
Não
25°C ou mais
Não
18°C 100.0%
15°C ou menos <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$14,100 Vol.
$14,100 Vol.
17 jul 2026
15°C ou menos
$1,284 Vol.
Não
16°C
$978 Vol.
Não
17°C
$1,573 Vol.
Não
18°C
$2,457 Vol.
Sim
19°C
$1,919 Vol.
Não
20°C
$2,810 Vol.
Não
21°C
$749 Vol.
Não
22°C
$662 Vol.
Não
23°C
$553 Vol.
Não
24°C
$578 Vol.
Não
25°C ou mais
$537 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place the overnight minimum in central Paris near 17–19 °C for July 17, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing under a lingering warm, stable airmass. Recent heatwave conditions have elevated baseline temperatures, while the urban heat-island effect consistently adds 1–2 °C to observed lows relative to model grid points. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 18 °C because that outcome aligns with the median of latest high-resolution runs, yet the tight clustering of probabilities across 15–22 °C brackets reflects genuine model divergence on whether clear skies or increased low-level moisture will allow further radiational cooling. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$14,100Data de Término
17 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place the overnight minimum in central Paris near 17–19 °C for July 17, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing under a lingering warm, stable airmass. Recent heatwave conditions have elevated baseline temperatures, while the urban heat-island effect consistently adds 1–2 °C to observed lows relative to model grid points. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 18 °C because that outcome aligns with the median of latest high-resolution runs, yet the tight clustering of probabilities across 15–22 °C brackets reflects genuine model divergence on whether clear skies or increased low-level moisture will allow further radiational cooling. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,100Data de Término
17 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place the overnight minimum in central Paris near 17–19 °C for July 17, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing under a lingering warm, stable airmass. Recent heatwave conditions have elevated baseline temperatures, while the urban heat-island effect consistently adds 1–2 °C to observed lows relative to model grid points. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 18 °C because that outcome aligns with the median of latest high-resolution runs, yet the tight clustering of probabilities across 15–22 °C brackets reflects genuine model divergence on whether clear skies or increased low-level moisture will allow further radiational cooling. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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