Short-term forecast uncertainty for Tokyo’s overnight radiative cooling on July 16–17 is the dominant driver of the tightly bunched market odds around 25–28 °C. Current ensemble guidance shows modest differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and weak southerly flow, all of which can shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. With no strong frontal passage or typhoon influence anticipated in the next 48 hours, the range reflects typical midsummer variability under a subtropical high, where urban heat retention and humidity limit cooling. Historical July minima average near 25 °C, providing a climatological anchor that traders appear to weigh alongside the latest model runs. Updated forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency over the next 24 hours are likely to sharpen the distribution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Tóquio no dia 17 de julho?
Temperatura mais baixa em Tóquio no dia 17 de julho?
26°C 100.0%
21°C ou menos <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$18,330 Vol.
$18,330 Vol.
17 jul 2026
21°C ou menos
Não
22°C
Não
23°C
Não
24°C
Não
25°C
Não
26°C
Sim
27°C
Não
28°C
Não
29°C
Não
30°C
Não
31°C ou mais
Não
26°C 100.0%
21°C ou menos <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$18,330 Vol.
$18,330 Vol.
17 jul 2026
21°C ou menos
$386 Vol.
Não
22°C
$455 Vol.
Não
23°C
$1,670 Vol.
Não
24°C
$792 Vol.
Não
25°C
$1,542 Vol.
Não
26°C
$1,745 Vol.
Sim
27°C
$3,966 Vol.
Não
28°C
$5,019 Vol.
Não
29°C
$767 Vol.
Não
30°C
$1,006 Vol.
Não
31°C ou mais
$982 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty for Tokyo’s overnight radiative cooling on July 16–17 is the dominant driver of the tightly bunched market odds around 25–28 °C. Current ensemble guidance shows modest differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and weak southerly flow, all of which can shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. With no strong frontal passage or typhoon influence anticipated in the next 48 hours, the range reflects typical midsummer variability under a subtropical high, where urban heat retention and humidity limit cooling. Historical July minima average near 25 °C, providing a climatological anchor that traders appear to weigh alongside the latest model runs. Updated forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency over the next 24 hours are likely to sharpen the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$18,330Data de Término
17 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty for Tokyo’s overnight radiative cooling on July 16–17 is the dominant driver of the tightly bunched market odds around 25–28 °C. Current ensemble guidance shows modest differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and weak southerly flow, all of which can shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. With no strong frontal passage or typhoon influence anticipated in the next 48 hours, the range reflects typical midsummer variability under a subtropical high, where urban heat retention and humidity limit cooling. Historical July minima average near 25 °C, providing a climatological anchor that traders appear to weigh alongside the latest model runs. Updated forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency over the next 24 hours are likely to sharpen the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18,330Data de Término
17 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Short-term forecast uncertainty for Tokyo’s overnight radiative cooling on July 16–17 is the dominant driver of the tightly bunched market odds around 25–28 °C. Current ensemble guidance shows modest differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and weak southerly flow, all of which can shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. With no strong frontal passage or typhoon influence anticipated in the next 48 hours, the range reflects typical midsummer variability under a subtropical high, where urban heat retention and humidity limit cooling. Historical July minima average near 25 °C, providing a climatological anchor that traders appear to weigh alongside the latest model runs. Updated forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency over the next 24 hours are likely to sharpen the distribution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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