Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a 63% implied probability for Meta releasing its "Mango" AI model—a frontier multimodal generator for images and videos—by June 30, 2026, driven by the company's original first-half 2026 target reported in December 2025, tempered by March performance shortfalls that delayed companion model Avocado. Recent progress, including April's Muse Spark launch showcasing multimodal reasoning and hires from rivals like OpenAI, has bolstered confidence amid intensifying competition from Sora and Veo. Early April reports of hybrid open- and closed-source strategies for Mango add momentum, with Q2 earnings and potential developer events as key catalysts that could confirm timelines or benchmarks before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMeta modelo "Mango" lançado pela...?
Meta modelo "Mango" lançado pela...?
$24,665 Vol.
30 de junho
62%
$24,665 Vol.
30 de junho
62%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 22, 2025, 1:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a 63% implied probability for Meta releasing its "Mango" AI model—a frontier multimodal generator for images and videos—by June 30, 2026, driven by the company's original first-half 2026 target reported in December 2025, tempered by March performance shortfalls that delayed companion model Avocado. Recent progress, including April's Muse Spark launch showcasing multimodal reasoning and hires from rivals like OpenAI, has bolstered confidence amid intensifying competition from Sora and Veo. Early April reports of hybrid open- and closed-source strategies for Mango add momentum, with Q2 earnings and potential developer events as key catalysts that could confirm timelines or benchmarks before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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