Trader consensus on the 2026 AL Cy Young reflects razor-thin margins atop a deep pitching field, with Dylan Cease, George Kirby, and Tarik Skubal clustered around 24-25% implied probabilities due to their elite 2024 strikeout rates, sub-3.50 ERAs, and prime-age durability. Skubal's reigning Cy Young pedigree is offset by Detroit's modest run support, while Kirby benefits from Seattle's stout defense and Cease's move to a contender ecosystem—despite cross-league whispers. Looming uncertainties like innings limits for Garrett Crochet, Jacob deGrom's injury recovery, and broader AL parity in WHIP and FIP projections keep the pack bunched, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in a rotation-rich league where regression and health swings dominate long-term futures.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoGeorge Kirby 23.6%
Tarik Skubal 19%
Garrett Crochet 15%
Jacob deGrom 12%
Tarik Skubal
24%
Garrett Crochet
11%
Jacob deGrom
12%
Cole Ragans
7%
Hunter Brown
8%
Max Fried
10%
Bryan Woo
10%
Logan Gilbert
3%
Kyle Bradish
2%
Joe Ryan
2%
Ranger Suárez
6%
Nathan Eovaldi
6%
Dylan Cease
14%
George Kirby
24%
Carlos Rodón
5%
Kevin Gausman
2%
MacKenzie Gore
5%
Jose Soriano
5%
Pablo Lopez
6%
Gavin Williams
4%
Bryce Miller
6%
Cam Schlittler
6%
Gerrit Cole
4%
George Kirby 23.6%
Tarik Skubal 19%
Garrett Crochet 15%
Jacob deGrom 12%
Tarik Skubal
24%
Garrett Crochet
11%
Jacob deGrom
12%
Cole Ragans
7%
Hunter Brown
8%
Max Fried
10%
Bryan Woo
10%
Logan Gilbert
3%
Kyle Bradish
2%
Joe Ryan
2%
Ranger Suárez
6%
Nathan Eovaldi
6%
Dylan Cease
14%
George Kirby
24%
Carlos Rodón
5%
Kevin Gausman
2%
MacKenzie Gore
5%
Jose Soriano
5%
Pablo Lopez
6%
Gavin Williams
4%
Bryce Miller
6%
Cam Schlittler
6%
Gerrit Cole
4%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 18, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the 2026 AL Cy Young reflects razor-thin margins atop a deep pitching field, with Dylan Cease, George Kirby, and Tarik Skubal clustered around 24-25% implied probabilities due to their elite 2024 strikeout rates, sub-3.50 ERAs, and prime-age durability. Skubal's reigning Cy Young pedigree is offset by Detroit's modest run support, while Kirby benefits from Seattle's stout defense and Cease's move to a contender ecosystem—despite cross-league whispers. Looming uncertainties like innings limits for Garrett Crochet, Jacob deGrom's injury recovery, and broader AL parity in WHIP and FIP projections keep the pack bunched, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in a rotation-rich league where regression and health swings dominate long-term futures.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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