Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement narrowing the Grok 4.7 timeline to roughly ten days—pointing to a September 12 target—remains the dominant catalyst for current trader sentiment, following the August 12 launch of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6. xAI’s supplemental training on unique SpaceX data and the jump to a 2.1-trillion-parameter base have fueled expectations of strong engineering and real-world performance gains over rivals, yet historical slippage in xAI windows and the absence of an official model ID, benchmarks, or pricing keep probabilities clustered tightly around mid-September dates. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s imminent Astra release adds uncertainty, while the market’s modest premium on September 17 reflects trader caution around potential last-minute delays or integration hurdles typical of frontier large language model launches.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPróximo Modelo Grok (4.7+) lançado em...?
Próximo Modelo Grok (4.7+) lançado em...?
Em ou antes de 9 de setembro 44%
10 de setembro 44%
11 de setembro 44%
20 de setembro 44%
NOVO
NOVO
9 set 2026
Em ou antes de 9 de setembro
44%
10 de setembro
44%
11 de setembro
44%
12 de setembro
28%
13 de setembro
21%
14 de setembro
44%
15 de setembro
28%
16 de setembro
28%
17 de setembro
28%
18 de setembro
28%
19 de setembro
38%
20 de setembro
44%
21 de setembro
44%
22 de setembro
44%
23 de setembro
44%
24 de setembro
44%
25 de setembro
26%
26 de setembro
44%
27 de setembro
24%
28 de setembro
44%
29 de setembro
43%
30 de setembro
44%
Nenhum lançamento até 30 de setembro
44%
Em ou antes de 9 de setembro 44%
10 de setembro 44%
11 de setembro 44%
20 de setembro 44%
NOVO
NOVO
9 set 2026
Em ou antes de 9 de setembro
$0 Vol.
44%
10 de setembro
$0 Vol.
44%
11 de setembro
$0 Vol.
44%
12 de setembro
$0 Vol.
28%
13 de setembro
$0 Vol.
21%
14 de setembro
$0 Vol.
44%
15 de setembro
$0 Vol.
28%
16 de setembro
$0 Vol.
28%
17 de setembro
$0 Vol.
28%
18 de setembro
$0 Vol.
28%
19 de setembro
$0 Vol.
38%
20 de setembro
$0 Vol.
44%
21 de setembro
$0 Vol.
44%
22 de setembro
$0 Vol.
44%
23 de setembro
$0 Vol.
44%
24 de setembro
$0 Vol.
44%
25 de setembro
$0 Vol.
26%
26 de setembro
$0 Vol.
44%
27 de setembro
$0 Vol.
24%
28 de setembro
$0 Vol.
44%
29 de setembro
$0 Vol.
43%
30 de setembro
$0 Vol.
44%
Nenhum lançamento até 30 de setembro
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement narrowing the Grok 4.7 timeline to roughly ten days—pointing to a September 12 target—remains the dominant catalyst for current trader sentiment, following the August 12 launch of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6. xAI’s supplemental training on unique SpaceX data and the jump to a 2.1-trillion-parameter base have fueled expectations of strong engineering and real-world performance gains over rivals, yet historical slippage in xAI windows and the absence of an official model ID, benchmarks, or pricing keep probabilities clustered tightly around mid-September dates. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s imminent Astra release adds uncertainty, while the market’s modest premium on September 17 reflects trader caution around potential last-minute delays or integration hurdles typical of frontier large language model launches.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement narrowing the Grok 4.7 timeline to roughly ten days—pointing to a September 12 target—remains the dominant catalyst for current trader sentiment, following the August 12 launch of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6. xAI’s supplemental training on unique SpaceX data and the jump to a 2.1-trillion-parameter base have fueled expectations of strong engineering and real-world performance gains over rivals, yet historical slippage in xAI windows and the absence of an official model ID, benchmarks, or pricing keep probabilities clustered tightly around mid-September dates. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s imminent Astra release adds uncertainty, while the market’s modest premium on September 17 reflects trader caution around potential last-minute delays or integration hurdles typical of frontier large language model launches.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement narrowing the Grok 4.7 timeline to roughly ten days—pointing to a September 12 target—remains the dominant catalyst for current trader sentiment, following the August 12 launch of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6. xAI’s supplemental training on unique SpaceX data and the jump to a 2.1-trillion-parameter base have fueled expectations of strong engineering and real-world performance gains over rivals, yet historical slippage in xAI windows and the absence of an official model ID, benchmarks, or pricing keep probabilities clustered tightly around mid-September dates. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s imminent Astra release adds uncertainty, while the market’s modest premium on September 17 reflects trader caution around potential last-minute delays or integration hurdles typical of frontier large language model launches.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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