OpenAI's practice of anonymously debuting frontier large language models on LMArena—formerly LMSYS Chatbot Arena—for blind human evaluations continues to shape trader sentiment, as evidenced by GPT-5.4's March 2026 appearance and GPT-5.5's April 27 entry at 1488 Elo (#7 on text leaderboard, #9 code with +50-point gain over predecessor). Released April 23 amid Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 dominance (1503 Elo #1 since April 16), GPT-5.5 underscores competitive pressures in agentic workflows and multimodal capabilities. Traders anticipate the next model—potentially GPT-5.6 or o3 successor—to follow suit with strong implied probabilities above 1480 Elo at first leaderboard appearance, though timelines remain fluid amid rapid iteration cycles and no confirmed previews. Watch for leaks or developer previews that could signal imminent blind tests.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNext OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?
Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?
$205,221 Vol.
30 jun 2026
1480+
No
1490+
Não
1500+
No
1520+
No
$205,221 Vol.
1480+
$126,080 Vol.
No
1490+
$6,363 Vol.
Não
1500+
$48,907 Vol.
No
1520+
$23,871 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".OpenAI's practice of anonymously debuting frontier large language models on LMArena—formerly LMSYS Chatbot Arena—for blind human evaluations continues to shape trader sentiment, as evidenced by GPT-5.4's March 2026 appearance and GPT-5.5's April 27 entry at 1488 Elo (#7 on text leaderboard, #9 code with +50-point gain over predecessor). Released April 23 amid Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 dominance (1503 Elo #1 since April 16), GPT-5.5 underscores competitive pressures in agentic workflows and multimodal capabilities. Traders anticipate the next model—potentially GPT-5.6 or o3 successor—to follow suit with strong implied probabilities above 1480 Elo at first leaderboard appearance, though timelines remain fluid amid rapid iteration cycles and no confirmed previews. Watch for leaks or developer previews that could signal imminent blind tests.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Mercado Aberto: Apr 20, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volume
$205,221Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 20, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".OpenAI's practice of anonymously debuting frontier large language models on LMArena—formerly LMSYS Chatbot Arena—for blind human evaluations continues to shape trader sentiment, as evidenced by GPT-5.4's March 2026 appearance and GPT-5.5's April 27 entry at 1488 Elo (#7 on text leaderboard, #9 code with +50-point gain over predecessor). Released April 23 amid Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 dominance (1503 Elo #1 since April 16), GPT-5.5 underscores competitive pressures in agentic workflows and multimodal capabilities. Traders anticipate the next model—potentially GPT-5.6 or o3 successor—to follow suit with strong implied probabilities above 1480 Elo at first leaderboard appearance, though timelines remain fluid amid rapid iteration cycles and no confirmed previews. Watch for leaks or developer previews that could signal imminent blind tests.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Volume
$205,221Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 20, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
OpenAI's practice of anonymously debuting frontier large language models on LMArena—formerly LMSYS Chatbot Arena—for blind human evaluations continues to shape trader sentiment, as evidenced by GPT-5.4's March 2026 appearance and GPT-5.5's April 27 entry at 1488 Elo (#7 on text leaderboard, #9 code with +50-point gain over predecessor). Released April 23 amid Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 dominance (1503 Elo #1 since April 16), GPT-5.5 underscores competitive pressures in agentic workflows and multimodal capabilities. Traders anticipate the next model—potentially GPT-5.6 or o3 successor—to follow suit with strong implied probabilities above 1480 Elo at first leaderboard appearance, though timelines remain fluid amid rapid iteration cycles and no confirmed previews. Watch for leaks or developer previews that could signal imminent blind tests.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions