Recent U.S.-China trade talks and the September 24 White House summit between Presidents Trump and Xi represent the main driver behind the dispersed odds on the December 31, 2026 tariff rate. Current weighted averages hover near 20-30 percent following July Section 301 duties of 12.5 percent tied to forced-labor concerns, which replaced earlier emergency measures struck down by the Supreme Court. Traders weigh the November truce expiration against signals from preparatory meetings that both sides may reduce duties on select noncritical goods while considering an additional overcapacity tariff. Ongoing Section 301 probes, congressional pressure on reciprocity, and any summit commitments on fentanyl precursors or market access could shift the rate trajectory before year-end, sustaining the close contest among the 5-15 percent, 25-35 percent, and lower bands.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado5–15% 28%
25–35% 22%
<5% 20%
15–25% 18%
NOVO
NOVO
30 dez 2026
<5%
20%
5–15%
28%
15–25%
18%
25–35%
22%
35%+
13%
5–15% 28%
25–35% 22%
<5% 20%
15–25% 18%
NOVO
NOVO
30 dez 2026
<5%
$182 Vol.
20%
5–15%
$90 Vol.
28%
15–25%
$20 Vol.
18%
25–35%
$20 Vol.
22%
35%+
$145 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Recent U.S.-China trade talks and the September 24 White House summit between Presidents Trump and Xi represent the main driver behind the dispersed odds on the December 31, 2026 tariff rate. Current weighted averages hover near 20-30 percent following July Section 301 duties of 12.5 percent tied to forced-labor concerns, which replaced earlier emergency measures struck down by the Supreme Court. Traders weigh the November truce expiration against signals from preparatory meetings that both sides may reduce duties on select noncritical goods while considering an additional overcapacity tariff. Ongoing Section 301 probes, congressional pressure on reciprocity, and any summit commitments on fentanyl precursors or market access could shift the rate trajectory before year-end, sustaining the close contest among the 5-15 percent, 25-35 percent, and lower bands.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Volume
$458Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Recent U.S.-China trade talks and the September 24 White House summit between Presidents Trump and Xi represent the main driver behind the dispersed odds on the December 31, 2026 tariff rate. Current weighted averages hover near 20-30 percent following July Section 301 duties of 12.5 percent tied to forced-labor concerns, which replaced earlier emergency measures struck down by the Supreme Court. Traders weigh the November truce expiration against signals from preparatory meetings that both sides may reduce duties on select noncritical goods while considering an additional overcapacity tariff. Ongoing Section 301 probes, congressional pressure on reciprocity, and any summit commitments on fentanyl precursors or market access could shift the rate trajectory before year-end, sustaining the close contest among the 5-15 percent, 25-35 percent, and lower bands.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$458Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Recent U.S.-China trade talks and the September 24 White House summit between Presidents Trump and Xi represent the main driver behind the dispersed odds on the December 31, 2026 tariff rate. Current weighted averages hover near 20-30 percent following July Section 301 duties of 12.5 percent tied to forced-labor concerns, which replaced earlier emergency measures struck down by the Supreme Court. Traders weigh the November truce expiration against signals from preparatory meetings that both sides may reduce duties on select noncritical goods while considering an additional overcapacity tariff. Ongoing Section 301 probes, congressional pressure on reciprocity, and any summit commitments on fentanyl precursors or market access could shift the rate trajectory before year-end, sustaining the close contest among the 5-15 percent, 25-35 percent, and lower bands.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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