Recent statements from Chinese officials highlight ongoing negotiations for reciprocal tariff reductions on $30 billion in goods per side, with expectations building ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit in Washington. These talks build on prior arrangements, including the 2025 Kuala Lumpur framework and subsequent truces that suspended certain tariffs until November 2026, alongside the establishment of a U.S.-China Board of Trade to manage bilateral issues. Trader consensus reflected in the 87.6% implied probability for a deal by December 31 aligns with this momentum toward targeted de-escalation, though outcomes depend on summit results and follow-through on non-sensitive product exclusions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado88% chance
$248,353 Vol.
$248,353 Vol.
31 dez 2026
88% chance
$248,353 Vol.
$248,353 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent statements from Chinese officials highlight ongoing negotiations for reciprocal tariff reductions on $30 billion in goods per side, with expectations building ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit in Washington. These talks build on prior arrangements, including the 2025 Kuala Lumpur framework and subsequent truces that suspended certain tariffs until November 2026, alongside the establishment of a U.S.-China Board of Trade to manage bilateral issues. Trader consensus reflected in the 87.6% implied probability for a deal by December 31 aligns with this momentum toward targeted de-escalation, though outcomes depend on summit results and follow-through on non-sensitive product exclusions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado Aberto: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$248,353Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent statements from Chinese officials highlight ongoing negotiations for reciprocal tariff reductions on $30 billion in goods per side, with expectations building ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit in Washington. These talks build on prior arrangements, including the 2025 Kuala Lumpur framework and subsequent truces that suspended certain tariffs until November 2026, alongside the establishment of a U.S.-China Board of Trade to manage bilateral issues. Trader consensus reflected in the 87.6% implied probability for a deal by December 31 aligns with this momentum toward targeted de-escalation, though outcomes depend on summit results and follow-through on non-sensitive product exclusions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$248,353Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent statements from Chinese officials highlight ongoing negotiations for reciprocal tariff reductions on $30 billion in goods per side, with expectations building ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit in Washington. These talks build on prior arrangements, including the 2025 Kuala Lumpur framework and subsequent truces that suspended certain tariffs until November 2026, alongside the establishment of a U.S.-China Board of Trade to manage bilateral issues. Trader consensus reflected in the 87.6% implied probability for a deal by December 31 aligns with this momentum toward targeted de-escalation, though outcomes depend on summit results and follow-through on non-sensitive product exclusions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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