Recent polling averages show narrow margins in multiple 2026 Senate contests, including Texas, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, where Democratic candidates hold small leads or ties in states previously viewed as Republican-leaning. Low presidential approval ratings, open seats after retirements, and candidate recruitment have expanded the battlefield, with traders assigning the highest probabilities for sub-five-point finishes to Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine. Fund-raising edges for Democratic nominees and late primary dynamics in states like Michigan and New Hampshire continue to influence positioning, while Republicans retain advantages in voter turnout infrastructure and overall spending capacity heading into the final weeks before November 3.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$65,730 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
80%
Alasca
70%
Iowa
69%
Kansas
70%
Michigan
57%
Ohio (Especial)
56%
Maine
42%
Nebraska
42%
New Hampshire
37%
South Carolina
42%
Carolina do Norte
28%
Flórida (Especial)
26%
Minnesota
23%
Geórgia
20%
Novo México
13%
Montana
11%
Virgínia
4%
Colorado
3%
$65,730 Vol.
Texas
$7,420 Vol.
80%
Alasca
$2,853 Vol.
70%
Iowa
$5,880 Vol.
69%
Kansas
$571 Vol.
70%
Michigan
$3,054 Vol.
57%
Ohio (Especial)
$3,969 Vol.
56%
Maine
$1,119 Vol.
42%
Nebraska
$3,847 Vol.
42%
New Hampshire
$2,422 Vol.
37%
South Carolina
$109 Vol.
42%
Carolina do Norte
$5,817 Vol.
28%
Flórida (Especial)
$2,450 Vol.
26%
Minnesota
$10,399 Vol.
23%
Geórgia
$2,057 Vol.
20%
Novo México
$6,665 Vol.
13%
Montana
$3,190 Vol.
11%
Virgínia
$1,344 Vol.
4%
Colorado
$2,599 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages show narrow margins in multiple 2026 Senate contests, including Texas, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, where Democratic candidates hold small leads or ties in states previously viewed as Republican-leaning. Low presidential approval ratings, open seats after retirements, and candidate recruitment have expanded the battlefield, with traders assigning the highest probabilities for sub-five-point finishes to Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine. Fund-raising edges for Democratic nominees and late primary dynamics in states like Michigan and New Hampshire continue to influence positioning, while Republicans retain advantages in voter turnout infrastructure and overall spending capacity heading into the final weeks before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$65,730Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages show narrow margins in multiple 2026 Senate contests, including Texas, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, where Democratic candidates hold small leads or ties in states previously viewed as Republican-leaning. Low presidential approval ratings, open seats after retirements, and candidate recruitment have expanded the battlefield, with traders assigning the highest probabilities for sub-five-point finishes to Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine. Fund-raising edges for Democratic nominees and late primary dynamics in states like Michigan and New Hampshire continue to influence positioning, while Republicans retain advantages in voter turnout infrastructure and overall spending capacity heading into the final weeks before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$65,730Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages show narrow margins in multiple 2026 Senate contests, including Texas, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, where Democratic candidates hold small leads or ties in states previously viewed as Republican-leaning. Low presidential approval ratings, open seats after retirements, and candidate recruitment have expanded the battlefield, with traders assigning the highest probabilities for sub-five-point finishes to Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine. Fund-raising edges for Democratic nominees and late primary dynamics in states like Michigan and New Hampshire continue to influence positioning, while Republicans retain advantages in voter turnout infrastructure and overall spending capacity heading into the final weeks before November 3.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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