**The Green Party of Quebec (PVQ) has never elected a member to the National Assembly and remains marginal in current polling and seat projections for the October 5, 2026 election.** Recent surveys and models from Léger, 338Canada, Qc125, and others focus exclusively on the Parti Québécois (around 29%), Coalition Avenir Québec (23–24%), Liberals (22%), Conservatives (15%), and Québec solidaire (9–10%), with no measurable PVQ support or projected seats. The party’s historical vote share has stayed below 2% province-wide, and first-past-the-post dynamics favor established parties with concentrated regional strength. PVQ leader Alex Tyrrell has secured rules changes to ensure smaller-party candidates receive invitations to local debates, and the party is actively recruiting candidates while emphasizing environmental and affordability issues. However, these steps have not translated into polling visibility or competitive ridings. With the campaign now underway and major-party contests dominating voter attention, traders assign an 88.5% probability to PVQ failing to win any seat, consistent with the party’s long-standing structural barriers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado7% chance
NOVO
NOVO
5 out 2026
7% chance
NOVO
NOVO
5 out 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**The Green Party of Quebec (PVQ) has never elected a member to the National Assembly and remains marginal in current polling and seat projections for the October 5, 2026 election.** Recent surveys and models from Léger, 338Canada, Qc125, and others focus exclusively on the Parti Québécois (around 29%), Coalition Avenir Québec (23–24%), Liberals (22%), Conservatives (15%), and Québec solidaire (9–10%), with no measurable PVQ support or projected seats. The party’s historical vote share has stayed below 2% province-wide, and first-past-the-post dynamics favor established parties with concentrated regional strength.
PVQ leader Alex Tyrrell has secured rules changes to ensure smaller-party candidates receive invitations to local debates, and the party is actively recruiting candidates while emphasizing environmental and affordability issues. However, these steps have not translated into polling visibility or competitive ridings. With the campaign now underway and major-party contests dominating voter attention, traders assign an 88.5% probability to PVQ failing to win any seat, consistent with the party’s long-standing structural barriers.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volume
$182Data de Término
5 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**The Green Party of Quebec (PVQ) has never elected a member to the National Assembly and remains marginal in current polling and seat projections for the October 5, 2026 election.** Recent surveys and models from Léger, 338Canada, Qc125, and others focus exclusively on the Parti Québécois (around 29%), Coalition Avenir Québec (23–24%), Liberals (22%), Conservatives (15%), and Québec solidaire (9–10%), with no measurable PVQ support or projected seats. The party’s historical vote share has stayed below 2% province-wide, and first-past-the-post dynamics favor established parties with concentrated regional strength.
PVQ leader Alex Tyrrell has secured rules changes to ensure smaller-party candidates receive invitations to local debates, and the party is actively recruiting candidates while emphasizing environmental and affordability issues. However, these steps have not translated into polling visibility or competitive ridings. With the campaign now underway and major-party contests dominating voter attention, traders assign an 88.5% probability to PVQ failing to win any seat, consistent with the party’s long-standing structural barriers.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$182Data de Término
5 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...**The Green Party of Quebec (PVQ) has never elected a member to the National Assembly and remains marginal in current polling and seat projections for the October 5, 2026 election.** Recent surveys and models from Léger, 338Canada, Qc125, and others focus exclusively on the Parti Québécois (around 29%), Coalition Avenir Québec (23–24%), Liberals (22%), Conservatives (15%), and Québec solidaire (9–10%), with no measurable PVQ support or projected seats. The party’s historical vote share has stayed below 2% province-wide, and first-past-the-post dynamics favor established parties with concentrated regional strength. PVQ leader Alex Tyrrell has secured rules changes to ensure smaller-party candidates receive invitations to local debates, and the party is actively recruiting candidates while emphasizing environmental and affordability issues. However, these steps have not translated into polling visibility or competitive ridings. With the campaign now underway and major-party contests dominating voter attention, traders assign an 88.5% probability to PVQ failing to win any seat, consistent with the party’s long-standing structural barriers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions