Recent polls during the early October 5 Quebec campaign show the CAQ under Christine Fréchette surging to within a statistical tie of the PQ, gaining ground among francophones and older voters largely from the Liberals. Seat projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125 place the PQ as the likely plurality winner with averages near 45–48 seats but only single-digit odds of reaching the 64-seat majority threshold on the updated map. This volatility stems from split federalist support across the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives, combined with the PQ’s concentrated francophone base that boosts its riding efficiency yet leaves limited margin for error. Further shifts in francophone preferences or turnout in key PQ-CAQ contests could alter the balance before election day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado48% chance
NOVO
NOVO
5 out 2026
48% chance
NOVO
NOVO
5 out 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls during the early October 5 Quebec campaign show the CAQ under Christine Fréchette surging to within a statistical tie of the PQ, gaining ground among francophones and older voters largely from the Liberals. Seat projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125 place the PQ as the likely plurality winner with averages near 45–48 seats but only single-digit odds of reaching the 64-seat majority threshold on the updated map. This volatility stems from split federalist support across the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives, combined with the PQ’s concentrated francophone base that boosts its riding efficiency yet leaves limited margin for error. Further shifts in francophone preferences or turnout in key PQ-CAQ contests could alter the balance before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volume
$71Data de Término
5 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls during the early October 5 Quebec campaign show the CAQ under Christine Fréchette surging to within a statistical tie of the PQ, gaining ground among francophones and older voters largely from the Liberals. Seat projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125 place the PQ as the likely plurality winner with averages near 45–48 seats but only single-digit odds of reaching the 64-seat majority threshold on the updated map. This volatility stems from split federalist support across the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives, combined with the PQ’s concentrated francophone base that boosts its riding efficiency yet leaves limited margin for error. Further shifts in francophone preferences or turnout in key PQ-CAQ contests could alter the balance before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$71Data de Término
5 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls during the early October 5 Quebec campaign show the CAQ under Christine Fréchette surging to within a statistical tie of the PQ, gaining ground among francophones and older voters largely from the Liberals. Seat projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125 place the PQ as the likely plurality winner with averages near 45–48 seats but only single-digit odds of reaching the 64-seat majority threshold on the updated map. This volatility stems from split federalist support across the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives, combined with the PQ’s concentrated francophone base that boosts its riding efficiency yet leaves limited margin for error. Further shifts in francophone preferences or turnout in key PQ-CAQ contests could alter the balance before election day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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