**The Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly riding is a competitive contest in the October 5, 2026, general election, with Parti Québécois candidate Élodie Murphy-Gauthier and Coalition Avenir Québec candidate Guy Veillette as the closest contenders in trader pricing.** The open seat after longtime CAQ incumbent Marie-Louise Tardif’s retirement has removed the advantages of incumbency in a region that delivered the party a 35-point margin in 2022. Provincial trends show the CAQ and PQ running closely overall, and local projections place their vote shares within a few points of each other (roughly 30–34 percent range), with PCQ and PLQ candidates trailing further back. Murphy-Gauthier’s background as a family physician settled in Shawinigan for nearly a decade aligns with voter priorities around health and social services in Mauricie, while Veillette’s decades as a local journalist and deep family roots in the riding emphasize regional familiarity. The nomination period closed September 17, and the short campaign window since the August 27 writs has produced limited differentiation so far. Traders see little separation because the race remains sensitive to broader provincial swings, turnout in Shawinigan and La Tuque, and any late movement in health or economic messaging. Further polling shifts, candidate debates, or riding-specific endorsements could widen the gap before election night.