This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.The open 2026 Alaska governor race, following term limits on incumbent Mike Dunleavy, features a crowded nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18 that advances contenders to the November general election. This structure, combined with more than a dozen Republican, Democratic, and independent filings, has fragmented early support and kept implied probabilities closely bunched, with Tom Begich holding a modest lead over Bernadette Wilson. Recent candidate actions, including Nancy Dahlstrom’s withdrawal, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins selecting a running mate, and several Republicans entering the contest, have reinforced the lack of consolidation. Limited polling shows similar dispersion, and traders appear to be pricing in high uncertainty over which four candidates will advance and how vote splits among aligned contenders may shift before the primary.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
The open 2026 Alaska governor race, following term limits on incumbent Mike Dunleavy, features a crowded nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18 that advances contenders to the November general election. This structure, combined with more than a dozen Republican, Democratic, and independent filings, has fragmented early support and kept implied probabilities closely bunched, with Tom Begich holding a modest lead over Bernadette Wilson. Recent candidate actions, including Nancy Dahlstrom’s withdrawal, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins selecting a running mate, and several Republicans entering the contest, have reinforced the lack of consolidation. Limited polling shows similar dispersion, and traders appear to be pricing in high uncertainty over which four candidates will advance and how vote splits among aligned contenders may shift before the primary.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Apr 28 2026
Poll gives Republican Dave Bronson 7 % support in Alaska governor primary
David Bronson rises to 3%1%
The same April poll gave Republican Dave Bronson 7 % support, a modest rise that halted his earlier decline and nudged his market price upward from near‑zero to a low single‑digit level.
Apr 28 2026
Poll shows Democrat Tom Begich leading Alaska governor primary field
Tom Begich jumps to 41%11%
The Dittman Research poll released at the end of April showed Begich leading the Democratic field with 21 % support, prompting a steady climb in his market price to the highest level of the analysis window.
Apr 27 2026
Poll shows Tom Begich leading Alaska gubernatorial primary race
A Dittman Research poll commissioned by a Republican candidate showed Democrat Tom Begich leading the primary race with 21% support, indicating his strong position among voters and influencing market confidence in his candidacy.
Apr 26 2026
Tom Begich sees surge in market support
Tom Begich jumps to 38%13%
A late-stage rally in market support for Tom Begich pushed his price to 38%, reflecting shifting expectations in the gubernatorial race.
Apr 2 2026
State Sen. Matt Claman announces run for Alaska governor
Matt Claman dips to 0%1%
Claman’s formal campaign launch was reported in early April, but the market gave his option essentially zero value, reflecting low voter awareness and support.
Apr 2 2026
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins enters the race
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins surges to 48%38%
The entry of Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins into the gubernatorial race caused an immediate spike in his market price as voters and analysts assessed his candidacy.
Mar 17 2026
Treg Taylor gains traction in gubernatorial race
Treg Taylor surges to 17%15%
Treg Taylor's campaign saw a significant surge in market interest following increased visibility and campaign activity in mid-March.
Feb 19 2026
Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor sign Taxpayer Protection Pledge
Republican candidates Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge, committing to oppose all tax increases. This move solidified their conservative credentials and likely influenced market confidence in their candidacies.
Feb 4 2026
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins announces run for Alaska governor
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins plunges to 8%40%
Former state legislator Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins declared his candidacy for governor, becoming the 16th candidate and third Democrat in the race. His entry introduced a new dynamic to the Democratic field and affected market perceptions of his chances.
Feb 4 2026
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins announces gubernatorial candidacy
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state legislator, officially entered the 2026 Alaska governor race, becoming the 16th candidate and third Democrat. His entry initially raised market interest in his chances due to his legislative experience and focus on fiscal issues.
Jan 12 2026
Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor sign Taxpayer Protection Pledge
Bernadette Wilson jumps to 24%6%
Both Wilson and Taylor signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge, reinforcing their fiscal‑conservative credentials and giving a modest boost to their market prices after a period of low values.
Jan 12 2026
Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor sign Taxpayer Protection Pledge
Treg Taylor rises to 8%4%
The same pledge signing also lifted Treg Taylor’s market price from single‑digit levels to double‑digits as the pledge signaled a clear anti‑tax stance attractive to Alaska’s Republican base.
Jan 10 2026
Alaska Young Republicans host State Convention with gubernatorial candidates
The Alaska Young Republicans held a state convention featuring ten Republican gubernatorial candidates discussing key issues and their platforms. This event provided voters and markets with insights into candidate positions, affecting market perceptions especially for candidates like Bernadette Wilson, Treg Taylor, and others.
Jan 10 2026
Click Bishop opposes Trump’s Greenland plan at AKYR convention
Click Bishop rises to 6%3%
At the Alaska Young Republicans state convention, Bishop opposed the Trump‑led Greenland proposal and highlighted Permanent Fund dividend issues, prompting a slight bump in his market price after weeks of near‑zero levels.
Jan 10 2026
Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor sign Taxpayer Protection Pledge
Bernadette Wilson rises to 22%4%
Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor publicly committed to opposing all tax increases by signing the Taxpayer Protection Pledge, signaling fiscal conservatism and appealing to Republican voters, which affected their market support.
Jan 10 2026
Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom skips AKYR convention
Nancy Dahlstrom plunges to 5%16%
Dahlstrom’s absence from the AKYR convention was noted in coverage, reinforcing perception of a weaker campaign and contributing to a gradual decline in her market price during January‑February.
Jan 5 2026
Tim Walz drops Minnesota gubernatorial bid
The withdrawal of a high-profile governor from a different state's race signaled broader political shifts, impacting the overall market sentiment for gubernatorial candidates.
Oct 14 2025
Market prices adjust sharply following initial launch
Prices for all candidates dropped significantly from the 50% opening, indicating a rapid market correction as participants assessed the field.
Oct 13 2025
Former Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum faces review over private equity investment
An investigation revealed that former Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum deviated from state law and failed to perform due diligence when investing state savings, impacting his political standing as he launched a gubernatorial bid.
Oct 13 2025
Market opens with high uncertainty for all candidates
The market launched with all candidates priced at 50%, reflecting high initial uncertainty regarding the 2026 gubernatorial race.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.The open 2026 Alaska governor race, following term limits on incumbent Mike Dunleavy, features a crowded nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18 that advances contenders to the November general election. This structure, combined with more than a dozen Republican, Democratic, and independent filings, has fragmented early support and kept implied probabilities closely bunched, with Tom Begich holding a modest lead over Bernadette Wilson. Recent candidate actions, including Nancy Dahlstrom’s withdrawal, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins selecting a running mate, and several Republicans entering the contest, have reinforced the lack of consolidation. Limited polling shows similar dispersion, and traders appear to be pricing in high uncertainty over which four candidates will advance and how vote splits among aligned contenders may shift before the primary.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
The open 2026 Alaska governor race, following term limits on incumbent Mike Dunleavy, features a crowded nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18 that advances contenders to the November general election. This structure, combined with more than a dozen Republican, Democratic, and independent filings, has fragmented early support and kept implied probabilities closely bunched, with Tom Begich holding a modest lead over Bernadette Wilson. Recent candidate actions, including Nancy Dahlstrom’s withdrawal, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins selecting a running mate, and several Republicans entering the contest, have reinforced the lack of consolidation. Limited polling shows similar dispersion, and traders appear to be pricing in high uncertainty over which four candidates will advance and how vote splits among aligned contenders may shift before the primary.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Apr 28 2026
Poll gives Republican Dave Bronson 7 % support in Alaska governor primary
David Bronson rises to 3%1%
The same April poll gave Republican Dave Bronson 7 % support, a modest rise that halted his earlier decline and nudged his market price upward from near‑zero to a low single‑digit level.
Apr 28 2026
Poll shows Democrat Tom Begich leading Alaska governor primary field
Tom Begich jumps to 41%11%
The Dittman Research poll released at the end of April showed Begich leading the Democratic field with 21 % support, prompting a steady climb in his market price to the highest level of the analysis window.
Apr 27 2026
Poll shows Tom Begich leading Alaska gubernatorial primary race
A Dittman Research poll commissioned by a Republican candidate showed Democrat Tom Begich leading the primary race with 21% support, indicating his strong position among voters and influencing market confidence in his candidacy.
Apr 26 2026
Tom Begich sees surge in market support
Tom Begich jumps to 38%13%
A late-stage rally in market support for Tom Begich pushed his price to 38%, reflecting shifting expectations in the gubernatorial race.
Apr 2 2026
State Sen. Matt Claman announces run for Alaska governor
Matt Claman dips to 0%1%
Claman’s formal campaign launch was reported in early April, but the market gave his option essentially zero value, reflecting low voter awareness and support.
Apr 2 2026
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins enters the race
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins surges to 48%38%
The entry of Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins into the gubernatorial race caused an immediate spike in his market price as voters and analysts assessed his candidacy.
Mar 17 2026
Treg Taylor gains traction in gubernatorial race
Treg Taylor surges to 17%15%
Treg Taylor's campaign saw a significant surge in market interest following increased visibility and campaign activity in mid-March.
Feb 19 2026
Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor sign Taxpayer Protection Pledge
Republican candidates Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge, committing to oppose all tax increases. This move solidified their conservative credentials and likely influenced market confidence in their candidacies.
Feb 4 2026
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins announces run for Alaska governor
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins plunges to 8%40%
Former state legislator Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins declared his candidacy for governor, becoming the 16th candidate and third Democrat in the race. His entry introduced a new dynamic to the Democratic field and affected market perceptions of his chances.
Feb 4 2026
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins announces gubernatorial candidacy
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state legislator, officially entered the 2026 Alaska governor race, becoming the 16th candidate and third Democrat. His entry initially raised market interest in his chances due to his legislative experience and focus on fiscal issues.
Jan 12 2026
Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor sign Taxpayer Protection Pledge
Bernadette Wilson jumps to 24%6%
Both Wilson and Taylor signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge, reinforcing their fiscal‑conservative credentials and giving a modest boost to their market prices after a period of low values.
Jan 12 2026
Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor sign Taxpayer Protection Pledge
Treg Taylor rises to 8%4%
The same pledge signing also lifted Treg Taylor’s market price from single‑digit levels to double‑digits as the pledge signaled a clear anti‑tax stance attractive to Alaska’s Republican base.
Jan 10 2026
Alaska Young Republicans host State Convention with gubernatorial candidates
The Alaska Young Republicans held a state convention featuring ten Republican gubernatorial candidates discussing key issues and their platforms. This event provided voters and markets with insights into candidate positions, affecting market perceptions especially for candidates like Bernadette Wilson, Treg Taylor, and others.
Jan 10 2026
Click Bishop opposes Trump’s Greenland plan at AKYR convention
Click Bishop rises to 6%3%
At the Alaska Young Republicans state convention, Bishop opposed the Trump‑led Greenland proposal and highlighted Permanent Fund dividend issues, prompting a slight bump in his market price after weeks of near‑zero levels.
Jan 10 2026
Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor sign Taxpayer Protection Pledge
Bernadette Wilson rises to 22%4%
Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor publicly committed to opposing all tax increases by signing the Taxpayer Protection Pledge, signaling fiscal conservatism and appealing to Republican voters, which affected their market support.
Jan 10 2026
Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom skips AKYR convention
Nancy Dahlstrom plunges to 5%16%
Dahlstrom’s absence from the AKYR convention was noted in coverage, reinforcing perception of a weaker campaign and contributing to a gradual decline in her market price during January‑February.
Jan 5 2026
Tim Walz drops Minnesota gubernatorial bid
The withdrawal of a high-profile governor from a different state's race signaled broader political shifts, impacting the overall market sentiment for gubernatorial candidates.
Oct 14 2025
Market prices adjust sharply following initial launch
Prices for all candidates dropped significantly from the 50% opening, indicating a rapid market correction as participants assessed the field.
Oct 13 2025
Former Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum faces review over private equity investment
An investigation revealed that former Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum deviated from state law and failed to perform due diligence when investing state savings, impacting his political standing as he launched a gubernatorial bid.
Oct 13 2025
Market opens with high uncertainty for all candidates
The market launched with all candidates priced at 50%, reflecting high initial uncertainty regarding the 2026 gubernatorial race.
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Часто задаваемые вопросы
«Победитель выборов губернатора Аляски» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 22 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Том Бегич» с 30%, за ним следует «Бернадетт Уилсон» с 24%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 30¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 30%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.
На сегодняшний день «Победитель выборов губернатора Аляски» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $1 million с момента запуска рынка Oct 13, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.
Чтобы торговать на «Победитель выборов губернатора Аляски», просмотри 22 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.
Текущий фаворит для «Победитель выборов губернатора Аляски» — «Том Бегич» с 30%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 30%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Бернадетт Уилсон» с 24%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.
Правила разрешения «Победитель выборов губернатора Аляски» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.
Да. Тебе не нужно торговать, чтобы оставаться в курсе. Эта страница служит трекером в реальном времени для «Победитель выборов губернатора Аляски». Вероятности исходов обновляются в реальном времени по мере поступления новых сделок. Ты можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки и читать раздел комментариев, чтобы узнать мнение других трейдеров. Ты также можешь использовать фильтры временного диапазона на графике, чтобы увидеть, как менялись коэффициенты со временем.
Коэффициенты Polymarket устанавливаются реальными трейдерами, вкладывающими реальные деньги в свои убеждения, что обычно приводит к точным прогнозам. С объёмом торгов $1 million по “Победитель выборов губернатора Аляски” эти цены агрегируют коллективные знания и убеждённость тысяч участников — часто превосходя опросы, экспертные прогнозы и традиционные исследования. Рынки прогнозов, такие как Polymarket, имеют сильный послужной список точности, особенно когда события приближаются к дате разрешения. Например, месячный показатель точности Polymarket составляет 94%. Для получения последних статистических данных о точности прогнозов Polymarket посети страницу точности на Polymarket.
Чтобы совершить первую сделку на «Победитель выборов губернатора Аляски», зарегистрируй бесплатный аккаунт на Polymarket и пополни его с помощью криптовалюты, кредитной или дебетовой карты или банковского перевода. После пополнения аккаунта вернись на эту страницу, выбери исход, на который хочешь торговать, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты новичок на рынках прогнозов, нажми на ссылку «Как это работает» вверху любой страницы Polymarket для пошагового руководства.
На Polymarket цена каждого исхода представляет подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Цена 30¢ для «Том Бегич» на рынке «Победитель выборов губернатора Аляски» означает, что трейдеры коллективно оценивают вероятность того, что «Том Бегич» будет правильным результатом, примерно в 30%. Если ты купишь акции «Да» по 30¢ и исход окажется правильным, ты получишь $1,00 за акцию — прибыль 70¢ за акцию. Если нет — эти акции будут стоить $0.
Рынок «Победитель выборов губернатора Аляски» запланирован к разрешению примерно Nov 3, 2026. Это означает, что торговля остаётся открытой, а коэффициенты продолжат меняться до этой даты. Точные сроки разрешения зависят от момента появления официального результата, как описано в разделе «Правила».
Рынок «Победитель выборов губернатора Аляски» был недавно создан. Стань одним из первых, кто поделится своим анализом, оставив комментарий ниже, или вернись позже. Ты также можешь проверить вкладку «Активность» для ленты последних сделок в реальном времени.
Polymarket — крупнейший в мире рынок прогнозов, где ты можешь оставаться в курсе событий и зарабатывать на своих знаниях о реальных событиях. Трейдеры покупают и продают акции на исходы по темам от политики и выборов до криптовалют, финансов, спорта, технологий и культуры, включая рынки вроде «Победитель выборов губернатора Аляски». Цены отражают вероятности в реальном времени, подкреплённые финансовыми убеждениями, зачастую обеспечивая более быстрые и точные сигналы, чем опросы, эксперты или традиционные исследования.
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Часто задаваемые вопросы