Mary Peltola leads trader consensus in the 2026 Alaska Senate race at 63.5% implied probability, ahead of incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan at 37.5%, with minor candidates below 1%. Peltola’s stronger showing in the August nonpartisan primary, where she captured nearly 50% of the vote to Sullivan’s 41%, combined with her proven ability to consolidate second-choice support under ranked-choice voting, underpins the market positioning. Recent polling averages remain extremely tight, often within 2 points, reflecting Alaska’s independent electorate and the race’s status as a key contest for Senate control. Outside spending has intensified on both sides, while Peltola’s fundraising edge and Sullivan’s ties to the national Republican agenda continue to shape voter assessments ahead of the November general election. Minor candidates, including Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and David Leslie, show negligible impact on final-round outcomes.