The 2028 Democratic presidential nomination market remains fragmented because no candidate has declared and the party lacks consensus on its direction after recent national setbacks, leaving traders to price in a broad field of governors, senators, and House members with distinct ideological lanes. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads at 18.4% on strong progressive mobilization, early-state polling edges in places like New Hampshire, and consistent visibility through fundraising and public positioning, while Jon Ossoff at 15.8% benefits from a high-profile Senate reelection campaign featuring viral messaging and national fundraising. Gavin Newsom at 12.4% draws from name recognition and term-limited status but faces slippage tied to resurfaced personal matters and questions over California’s record. The DNC’s calendar shift prioritizing South Carolina and other diverse states adds further uncertainty, as upcoming midterms and potential announcements could quickly reorder probabilities in this wide-open contest.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоGavin Newsom campaigns in South Carolina, signaling 2028 presidential ambitions
Gavin Newsom dips to 14%1%
Newsom's visit to South Carolina, the first primary state for Democrats in 2028, was seen as exploratory for a presidential run, but his market odds continued to decline amid growing competition, ending near 14%.




















































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